Comments by Kurt Lessing

The choice

Euro Bonds won't work. We had them already. For a decade the stupid market treated all bonds in Europe nearly equal, the spread was minimal. Countries like Greece could borrow for almost German rates. But they just changed the money, not their mindset or their economy. Bankers are stupid sheep, but they will not fall for it twice. The idea of Euro bonds is, that they will gain the same or almost the same trust as German bonds to lower the borrowing cost for all Europe. Well, nobody will trust Euro bonds. The rates for borrowing will be staggering. The idea that Germany with its share of 23? 27% will somehow make this house of cards stable is something the stupid market will not buy this time, not even from The Economist. Germany has neither the economic power nor the political power nor the fiscal rectitude to make Euro bonds an attractive investment. Even if the overlooked countries with better economic data outside the Eurozone such as Sweden or Poland would chip in, it would not make a difference. The market is not rational, it is always reacting to a perceived future, and that is always an emotional reaction. The trust is gone and no mumbling over the crystal ball of either The Economist or the economists is going to restore it.

The feeling’s mutual

Gifting billions to Ireland and Portugal might make a difference - I am a lot less sure about Greece. In addition to the political will you need some basic tools to implement reform, both seems to be lacking in Greece. At the moment, Greece looks unable to form a stable government, let alone a responsible. To get political support from the people you have to make the oligarchs take their share - Papandreou didn't do it, Loukademos didn't do it and I don't see the necessary civil servants doing it. We dropped Eurocrats, they got firebombed. No amount of cash or goodwill can adress this.

The feeling’s mutual

Sure, Germany should be a bit more diplomatic. But harder than forking out cash without grumbling is to shut up when offered recipes for economic success by the - let's put this diplomatically - economically not really more successful.

The feeling’s mutual

The Club Med is frightening institutional investors into parking their money in AAA countries with zero interest. Your conspiracy theory is as ludicrous as the thought, that Italy had any impact whatsoever on the outcome of WWII.

The feeling’s mutual

If there is a survivor on the German political scene, it is Merkel. But I can't imagine she or her government would survive Euro bonds.
There is a reason, why Spain has to pay more for fresh cash than Germany. Germany went through extremely painful reforms initiated by Schröder. Other European countries seem to think they don't have to reform. Fair enough, they are sovereign countries, nobody can make them reform, least of all Germany. But the markets can. Those who argue for an European New Deal, new credits for reform, because austerity is hard to do in a recession, overlook that there is a condition to any deal: trust. Economic bankruptcy can be overcome - moral bankruptcy not so easy. Several European countries - beginning - alas - with Germany have proven time and again that European treaties are not worth the paper they are printed on. The ECB doesn't give a damn about its statutes - the printing press is rolling - and there is no sanction, nobody cares. All deals are off and that is no climate for new deals. Handing out Euro bonds against reforms does inspire as much confidence as a promise from a Greek politician.

The Greek run

I don't think they have to leave. They might start like California paying their civil servants with IOUs. I don't know if the Greek markets would accept these IOUs and at what rates. But it would be very difficult to import oil or medicaments with this currency, same problem as with a new Drachma. This shows, that there is no Euro crisis, but a sovereign debt crisis. The Euro crisis will hit, when the money printed by Tricheur and Draghi to illegally financing sovereign debt via the banks spills.

Of marbles and men

If you could make up your mind whether you are talking about Jewish art collectors or German Expressionists I might have a chance of seeing any analogy between the Nazis and Lord Elgin. At the moment there seems to be even less resemblance than between the Elgin marbles and what was left in Greek caring hands on the Akropolis.

Of marbles and men

Treasure should be treasured. All these invaluable objects were rescued in the 19th century from being destroyed by neglect in the Ottoman backwaters. The Elgin marbles would be gone, had they not been put into more educated and loving hands.
As they say, Greeks are Turks who take themselves for Italians. But Italy's Berlusconi had a distinctly Ottoman attitude not only towards women but also towards the antiques. Visit Pompeii while you can, it is falling down.

The Greek run

You are perfectly right the ox is in the ditch. But the Greek ox is so deep in the ditch, it may be time to worry about the other oxens headed for the ditch: Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy.
Simply throwing money at Greece won't do, the Greek problems are not only about good governance but basic administration. The EU can't fight corruption, and it can't take over administration. There is currently an EU mission trying to help with administration,they haven't even started to gather the necessary information but the Greek press is crying bloody murder already and the German head of the mission had the car of his wife firebombed.
Greece does not have a land register and who knows, what else is missing and yet they complain about meddling foreigners, colonialism and whatnot. They seem to want to go it alone. So be it.

The Greek run

Dealing with an "evidently troubled" business partner. This is getting better and better. So Greece is not a minor but non compos mentis? Who is insulting Greece here?

The Greek run

You are aware that there is a difference between doing business and bail-outs? In Germany, you can go to jail for bribery as some Siemens managers have learned to their cost. In Greece, I am not so sure - enlighten me, is this a prejudice?

Power politics

Just you wait. The Pakistani taliban will take over Afghanistan, then the Afghan taliban will take over Pakistan and then there will be light. Could be divine intervention, could be an Indian nuke.

The big engine that couldn’t

The CEO is a dangerous beast: shortsighted by quarterly reports, unsupervised by boards out of their depths and kept in the dark, made reckless by risking only a golden parachute and completely irresponsible because playing only with other people's money.

The Greek run

Utmost secrecy and "by surprise". If there was a Greek administration able to change a currency "by surprise" and political unity able to keep a secret, Greece would never have had any crisis.

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