I have been living in China for a few years and hvae noted some concerning aspects of life and the economy in recetn years.
Most importantly the amount of borrowing is incredible.
Young people can easily obtain credit cards and I know people with a salary of $200 per month with 7 credit cards and $15000 of debt on them. Few companies issue pay slips therefore it is impossible for banks and credit card companies to verify earnings before issuing loans for mortgages or credit cards. I believe China has a financial crisis, much larger than that of the US, waiting to unfold.
Bad debt rates are likely to soar here, western banks and investors should be cautious of Chinese banks and their recent IPOs.
It seems to me to be a no-win situation for China: on one side, analysts are saying the economy might overheat because of excessive growth whilst on the other side when growth seems to come back to a more sustainable level, analysts seem to be worried about China's economy... Please explain to me...
The Chinese slow down was engineered by the Chinese government to prevent overheating. It is working. Chinese authorities want China to grow at about 8%. Any thing over 8% is inflationary. China is facing a sectoral labor shortage.
Like Boontee and Bengkee said, the Chinese are in Control.
It is getting the balance right between unfettered capitalism and excessive centralised economic control.
This pragmatism, unfortunately or fortunately requires a government capable of making and carrying out decisions on a timely basis. The US would get off its economic malaise sooner if not for the gridlock of filibustering and a GOP determination to disallow any success by the Obama administration. True democracy is fine but not with a distortion that disallows it to work for the common folks.
@WYYY
You are never late; you are just perhaps incapable of a decent discussion or debate. Why not stay away from grief and take a bus?
AussieLouis says: "True democracy is fine but not with a distortion that disallows it to work for the common folks."
Isn't there a contradiction there somewhere? The politicians all claim to be working for the common folks and feeling their pain of joblessness. Problem is the politicians can't agree on the solutions and the common folks are even more clueless but want something, anything done.
I hope this crisis is also a good political crisis that will lay to rest once and for all the notion democracy is good for all. It is only good for the well to do and then again only when good times keep rolling in. Democracy is like an unending party where nobody needs worry abt the bills...it ends when the bills come due!
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@Steve Castle
You should go to live in China for a few years. I mean for real.
Perhaps after that you will like the country and its people.
I have been living in China for a few years and hvae noted some concerning aspects of life and the economy in recetn years.
Most importantly the amount of borrowing is incredible.
Young people can easily obtain credit cards and I know people with a salary of $200 per month with 7 credit cards and $15000 of debt on them. Few companies issue pay slips therefore it is impossible for banks and credit card companies to verify earnings before issuing loans for mortgages or credit cards. I believe China has a financial crisis, much larger than that of the US, waiting to unfold.
Bad debt rates are likely to soar here, western banks and investors should be cautious of Chinese banks and their recent IPOs.
@Raymond Piombino
China is set to maintain a stable GDP growth with low inflation for many more years to come.
So, don't you get "worried" over China's economy like the "analysts", or you would be perpetually in a no-win situation.
It seems to me to be a no-win situation for China: on one side, analysts are saying the economy might overheat because of excessive growth whilst on the other side when growth seems to come back to a more sustainable level, analysts seem to be worried about China's economy... Please explain to me...
Let the pro-China astroturfing begin!!!
(ok fine, continue. I got here a little late...)
The Chinese slow down was engineered by the Chinese government to prevent overheating. It is working. Chinese authorities want China to grow at about 8%. Any thing over 8% is inflationary. China is facing a sectoral labor shortage.
This all goes to show that China indeed knows where it is going and what it is doing, as far as managing a tangible economy is concerned.
And that matters.
(btt1943)
Like Boontee and Bengkee said, the Chinese are in Control.
It is getting the balance right between unfettered capitalism and excessive centralised economic control.
This pragmatism, unfortunately or fortunately requires a government capable of making and carrying out decisions on a timely basis. The US would get off its economic malaise sooner if not for the gridlock of filibustering and a GOP determination to disallow any success by the Obama administration. True democracy is fine but not with a distortion that disallows it to work for the common folks.
@WYYY
You are never late; you are just perhaps incapable of a decent discussion or debate. Why not stay away from grief and take a bus?
Unless Standard Chartered have captured a clone, Stephen Green is to be found at HSBC.
@datebiskot
Why so sour grape?
@lecra
Why so defensive?
AussieLouis says: "True democracy is fine but not with a distortion that disallows it to work for the common folks."
Isn't there a contradiction there somewhere? The politicians all claim to be working for the common folks and feeling their pain of joblessness. Problem is the politicians can't agree on the solutions and the common folks are even more clueless but want something, anything done.
I hope this crisis is also a good political crisis that will lay to rest once and for all the notion democracy is good for all. It is only good for the well to do and then again only when good times keep rolling in. Democracy is like an unending party where nobody needs worry abt the bills...it ends when the bills come due!