Dec 22nd 2010, 16:25 by K.S.
MOST people think of the Baltic States as one region, with no big differences between Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. That seemed reasonable enough when all three were occupied by the Soviet Union; when they won their independence in 1991; and when they entered NATO and the EU in 2004. Moreover they constituted an investment heaven of relatively low taxes, a cheap labour force and consumers hungry for everything “western”, from telecommunications to shoes.
But that was then. Now the trio are going in opposing directions. In 2011 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will no longer count as a single economic and political region.
Estonia, one of the most disciplined countries in the EU, will be labelled as “Eastern Europe” only geographically. The country had been hit by a global crisis as much as its neighbours but has recovered rapidly. That may be why officials and inhabitants
prefer their country to be described as “Nordic”, distancing it from the less successful Balts. To rub in the difference, Estonia has joined a group of countries bailing out deeply troubled Latvia.
Meanwhile, Latvia is shaping a course towards the Kremlin. On December 19th, for the first time since 1994, a Latvian president paid an official visit to Moscow. Valdis Zatlers met both President Dmitry Medvedev (the meeting lasted for 40 minutes longer than was planned) and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. (For its part, Estonia still does not have an invitation to visit Moscow.)
Lithuania, which unlike Latvia has refused IMF and EU loans, has masochistically preferred to struggle alone through its financial pain. Its foreign policy is rather odd, too: back in April President Dalia Grybauskaite refused to show up to dinner with Barack Obama, having said that there would be “no decision-making”. Instead, she is drifting towards the autocratic president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
Put all this together, and in January, when Estonia adopts the euro, the differences between three, once equal countries will be impossible to ignore. If a Baltic Tiger is still alive in 2011, it will definitely be Estonia. Perhaps not a tiger, but certainly a Nordic kitten.
This blog accompanies The World in 2012, our almanac of predictions for the year ahead. The blog is named after the mythological Cassandra, who was cursed by Apollo to make prophecies that were accurate, but disbelieved.
Advertisement
Over the past five days
Over the past seven days
Advertisement
Readers' comments
The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. Review our comments policy.
Sort:
Dear Jan,
Estonia just happens to be located in the North of Europe. For the terms "Northern countries" and "Nordic countries" there is only one reference in Estonian language - "Põhjamaad". That can be a part of the explanation why Estonians feel that they are a Northern nation.
We are different in a way like every country is different. Though we are not as different from our neighbors as North Korea is from its Southern neighbor. Only about 20 years ago the difference between Estonia and Finland was almost as big. We had no democracy, no free market, no freedom of expression, no freedom of travel .. etc ..
Oh .. it actually does not really matter whether Estonia will be called Nordic/Northern or not. What really matters is the Human Development Index and the fact that Estonia has been steadily climbing on HDI during last 20 years.
Regarding social democrats, they are now in opposition in Estonia but also in Finland and in Sweden. I will be not be surprised if social democrats will be in power in Estonia after next elections. Our President is social democrat alright.
It is not correct to say that "they" (i.e. Estonians) detest social welfare state. While Estonia cannot afford to spend on social welfare as much as our neighbors do it does not mean that we detest social welfare state.
And you may call Estonia as "Former Soviet Socialist Republic Estonia" forever if you like as that is also correct. And that also explains a lot what you can see in Estonia. In environment, in buildings, but also in people's minds. In long run, however, democratic societies will become more and more similar as we have no "iron curtains" any more. I only hope we can protect our nature and our language ..
@ Tallinner:
I don't understand the obsession of part of the Estonian public and elite to be considered 'Nordic'. At the same time they detest a social welfare state and at the same time they crave to be associated with a group of countries that have the most advanced social welfare states in the world. Maybe a good step for Estonia to really become more Nordic would be to start taking better care of the weakest and poorest members of Estonian society.
For JJ.
Nordic countries, Northern countries, Baltic countries, Baltic Sea countries .. Geographies, languages, cultures, democratic traditions, wealth ..
Right ..
Before WW2 Estonian society was pretty similar to other Northern European societies. Nobody belonged to Nordic Council at that time as it did not exist yet.
During the occupations from 1940 to 1990 Estonian society was destroyed almost completely. Thousands and thousands of best lawyers, officers, journalists, teachers, scientists, clergy, business people were sent to Gulag, or were just shot at spot. Thousands managed to escape West. Hundreds of thousands Soviets arrived and took over key positions.
Sovetization of Estonia during Stalin time was extremely cruel and systematic though not as cruel and systematic as the sovetization of Carelia and Eastern-Prussia (i.e. Kaliningrad oblast). Estonians still remained in majority.
In 1990 Estonia was really very different from Finland and from other Nordic countries. Now, in the last days of 2010 Estonia is less different from its Nordic neighbors. Estonia is technologically more advanced and more democratic now. Gap between rich and poor gets smaller every year.
Culturally and historically there are no nations in the world that are closer to Estonia than Nordic countries. Our common history goes back thousands of years. I reckon the same can be said about Latvia. And perhaps also about Lithuania.
Minorities? Before WW2 Estonia set an example how to treat minorities: Russians, Swedes, Germans, Jews enjoyed cultural autonomy. Russian old believers and orthodox believers enjoyed their freedom while they were persecuted in Russia.
After the Soviet occupation Estonia has spent a lot of resources to integrate the "after WW2 immigrants", who are mainly Russian-speaking" into Estonian society. This has not happened as successfully as we have wished, but it is not correct to say that "Estonia keeps on forgetting about its 30 % Russian-language minority". It is one of the top priorities in Estonia.
It is not me to decide whether Estonia is .. or will be called as a Nordic country. For many years Estonia will still be called as Former Soviet Republic Estonian SSR. And there is nothing wrong with that as that is the truth. But eventually it will evade away. Just as the Former German Democratic Republic. I believe EL is right and eventually Estonia will be called Nordic country. Põhjamaa. Sooner or later.
In my previous post I described the technical impossibility of Estonia being a Nordic country without being a Nordic council member state. Then there are the other severe differences.
1) The Nordic countries are social-democratic welfare states, Estonia is not. Completely different views on taxation etc.
2) The Nordic countries are culturally and historically more linked to each other than Estonia is to single one of them.
3) The Nordic countries recognize their minorities and support them in a myriad of ways, while Estonia keeps on forgetting about its 30 % Russian-language minority. That is not Nordic behaviour at all.
The Nordic countries are those which constitute the Nordic council. Estonia is not one of these five states, I'm afraid, and thus not Nordic.
Per capita GDP (PPP) of the Nordic and Baltic countries in 2009 (IMF) in current international dollars:
- Norway: 52,238
- Sweden: 37,775
- Denmark: 36,764
- Iceland: 36,681
- Finland: 34,401
- Estonia: 18,274
- Lithuania: 16,997
- Latvia: 14,330
Tallinner, I generally have no problem to agree with your reasonable posts and recommend them, cheers! Yet, you've misunderstood my suggestion about Estonia being envious. I didn't mean that Latvia suffered from an unanswered love to Russia. This is exactly the point that you can't have an ocean between Russia and yourselves. You can drift towards Russia politically, which I don't wish anyone, but you cannot drift away from it literally. Besides, a isolationist NKorean-style policy wouldn't suit Estonia or any other modern state.
This is why I assume that the Estonians being a reasonable, rationally minded nation, must be seeking an opportunity to bridge the lake between Tallinn and Moscow. The purpose is obvious - anyone needs normal relations with their neighbours, particularly those unpredictable ones.
Yes, the culture. I guess the very term Nordic only exists in the Germanic languages or, as easily copied, in the Roman languages (Nordique, Nordico). Even in the "Nordic" Finnish, it is exactly the same as in Estonian - "Northern countries". And so it is in Latvian. In fact, Latvia does identify itself with Northern Europe, not yet pronouncing its Nordic name clearly enough for ourselves to try it on.
Although Globalat ir absolutely right that the Nordics today are about the social inclusion and the Nordic welfare state model, both Estonia and Latvia would be Nordic by setting it as their targets by year 2050 or so.
I don't think the Nordics have ever had an idea of becoming Europe's wealthiest nations which they most definitely are. The political agenda of a Nordic country, I suppose, should be dominated by targets related to improving the quality of life and better equality. Only by doing that a nation has a chance to become as happy and rich as the Nordics are.
"I am Estonian alright, and I cannot speak on behalf of all Estonians, but I dare say that most Estonians would prefer to have an ocean, not the Lake Peipsi on our Eastern border."
Obviously, you can't build a mountain slope right on the Russian border. We share exactly the same emotions regarding Russia, but we're not talking about Russia in terms of wishful thinking, but in terms of the harsh reality we all must face in one way or another.
And obviously neither genetics, nor language plays an objective role in any of this. It's all about self-identification. The Finnish-Estonian unity is irrational, as the languages aren't mutually intelligible.
The point being that culture is only an excuse for political cooperation as some sort of a mirror of an alleged kinship among certain nations. This also means that the argument about Estonia being culturally Nordic (and different from Latvia) is completely irrational and makes no sense.
Or in other words - claims of "Nordic culture" shouldn't play a role here at all. Finns don't speak a North Germanic language. They are considered to be a full fledged member state of the Nordic Council. Latvians don't speak a North Germanic or a Finnic language, but we still should be able to become a Nordic country if our society (hopefully) evolves in that direction.
"Lithuania, which unlike Latvia has refused IMF and EU loans, has masochistically preferred to struggle alone through its financial pain."
Was the situation in Lithuania slightly different than in Latvia? I.e. the budged deficit size and the ability to get money from the market as opposed to a situation where the IMF help is the only option?
But I agree - the decision to carry out adjustments and to show that Lithuania can manage it on its own without external help is a bit masochistic.
"Instead, she is drifting towards the autocratic president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka. "
The Economist has called the Lithuanian support for Georgia 'clumsy' - with which many would disagree - considering the deal brought by Mr. Sarkozy; now Lithuania is 'drifting' towards Belarus.
In the minds of the regional experts here, could there possibly be another (reasonable) explanation for her actions?
For example, consider that Belarus is Lithuania's neighbour and perhaps Grybauskaite is trying to engage it more now, and turn it more to the West - especially since it seems that Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Lukashenka do not exactly like each other?
"I'm sure Estonia's envious of Latvia's progress with Russia."
I doubt.
I am Estonian alright, and I cannot speak on behalf of all Estonians, but I dare say that most Estonians would prefer to have an ocean, not the Lake Peipsi on our Eastern border. Russia is so unpredictable and dangerous. They can always close the gas valves or organize DOS on your servers or bribe your politicians or organize riots on your streets or attack your Ambassador in Moscow. We are not envious to Latvians, we are worried about Latvians. GWB once also looked into Putin's eyes .. and imagined something that he later regretted ..
Regarding the genetics and Latvians closeness to Finns .. well .. I do not exactly know what to say. This is racism or something. Not all Estonians are blond, tall and blue-eyed. Neither is the Swedish king. That is not relevant. Most people in the Northern Europe look the same and share most of their genes. Including the Russians in Pskov and Novgorod region. But that does not make us Russians. Language is what really matters. A lot. That is why I am Estonian and Juris & Alehins are Latvians. Not genes but language is what makes me Estonian. And therefore Finland is a special country for Estonia. Finnish sounds like ancient Estonian to my ears. I reckon the same attitude keeps the Scandinavian solidarity alive.
In Estonian language we do not use the therm "Nordic countries". We are using the term "Põhjamaad" instead. It means Northern countries. And since only three capitals are further north than Tallinn: Reykjavik, Oslo and Helsinki, then we can say without exaggeration that we live in a northern country alright.
The second closest country to Estonia is Latvia. Although we do not understand a word from Latvian (except the word saldejumps that every kid knows while the correct spelling should be saldejums I guess) we feel a lot of solidarity towards Latvia. Lithuania is a bit more distant, catholic etc .. but close to us anyway.
Regarding the "Nordic elitist club" .. well .. Estonians are even more arrogant. They want to set an example how to become one of the richest countries in Europe by 2025 :D
I seriously doubt that Estonia will achieve this but our goal is definitely not to "Copy" & "Paste" the Scandinavian experience forever.
And we never intended to elect a king after the Russian revolution in order to look similar to Scandinavian monarchies. Finland did. But then they had other thoughts.
1) Nordic means, first, an inclusive society, managed along broad social-democratic lines. Estonia with its flat tax and large gap between poor and wealthy is not Nordic at all. If you need a tag, try Anglo-Saxon.
2) Nordic countries have shied away from euro. It is because euro is not a social-democratic concept at all. In fact, it may (and does) lead to large unemplyment in places etc in the name of more efficient common market: a very non-Nordic thought.
The only Nordic country with euro is Finland, which, by the way, up until 1940 was considered a Baltic country. So, I just can not see how joining the Euro makes Estonia Nordic.
3) Latvian parliament is due to debate Belorussian elections next week.
Lithuanian parliament just passed very tough, Lukashenka elections-bashing resolution.
Estonians have done nothing on that. How does that square with the authors' notion that it is Lithuania that is drifting towards Lukasenka?
In short: a bad piece from author I generally like.
Latvians are just as keen to distance themselves from everything eastern as Estonians. And a claim that a visit to Russia is somehow "shaping its course towards the Kremlin" just doesn't sit well with the fact that Latvia was one small step from forming the most rusophobic government since the fall of USSR and certainly has the most rusophobic foreign minister in its history. And economically Estonia always was one step ahead of the other two (e.g. the “other Baltic countries will slow down Estonian bid for the EU” talk in the 90ties) and even though its economy has been managed better in the last few years, the approach and chosen direction still is nearly identical.
By the way the Finland has made a very a good capital having
mutually beneficial cooperation with , Russia. And they have been
using very rationally the neighborhood of Russia for their production
distribution. And it is very doubtfully, that Finland could reach the present level of economic, and could assist to Estonia in such respect if they conducted the same policy as all three mentioned in the article republics.
On drifting towards Moscow. Although I am personally not in favour of the latest move by President Zatlers, it is a general belief in Latvia that this visit is a huge contribution to building pragmatic relations with Russia. I'd say this should rather put Latvia closer to the Nordic model of dealing with Russia without demonising and alienating it.
Finland is of course the best and classical example. But not only. Still, Finland is a leader, an ice-breaker in many ways, simply because it depends on relations with Russia due to its geography. And due to the same reason, the Baltics (or the junior Nordics if you wish) are very much advised to follow exactly the Finnish example.
I'm sure Estonia's envious of Latvia's progress with Russia. But Estonia had a particularly unpleasant incident in a very recent history. With that in your luggage, any Finnish- or Latvian-style progress with Russia doesn't seem feasible at the moment. I guess Estonia is maybe an inch closer to pragmatism with Russia than Georgia that has just had a real war with Russia. Having said that, I don’t believe much in pragmatism with Russia.
Hmmm. Ireland had surpluses before its Euro-sodden government pledged to pay of all the debts of its privately owned banks - debts payable to German, British and French banks. So in effect Ireland is being forced, with masochistic subservience, to shrink its economy, export its capital (with no return) and increase the emigration of its young in order to prop up the Euro, which is a creature of Europe's big banks.
Maybe Estonia will not face the fate of small countries within the Euro union. It may avoid that fate by strictly regulating the risks of its banks, or by having no Estonian based banks at all.
If we're comparing Latvian and Estonian culture, there's a strong need to clear up some common misconceptions and myths.
Estonia shares a lot more with Latvia than just the past 800 years of history.
Although some Estonians for some reason are trying to distance themselves from Latvia, claiming that their culture or mentality is somehow different, the truth is that both of the nations have been intermingling with each other for thousands of years since the end of the last ice age.
Genetically, Latvians and Estonians are like two peas in a pod. In fact, Latvians are more closely related to Finns than Estonians are.
The original Finnic inhabitants of the region incrementally lost their 'mother tongue' and culture after coming in contact with the Indo-European migrants. Yet it is merely a historical coincidence that the Finnic tribes in Latvia adopted an Indo-European language (precursor to the modern day Latvian and Lithuanian), while the Finnic tribes in Estonia didn't.
For those not quite interested in linguistics or genetics - simply put, we, Latvians, are as Finnic as Estonians. The only difference is that our 'mother tongue' is an Indo-European language, in which we're speaking with a strong Finnic accent.
Our cultures are very similar, our mentalities are identical, our traditional holidays are the same. Sure, Estonians might call their Christmas 'Yule' or boast about them being enslaved by the Danes for a brief period of time, but essentially we're a lot more closely related than most of us tend to think (and NOT the other way arround).
In other words, culture-wise, there are practically no objective differences between Estonians and Latvians.
...and if I'm not mistaken, Latvia is not exactly considering getting the Estonian contribution disbursed.
Well, the very fact of making a lot available for Latvia if it decides to raise it, is extremely laudable and was greatly appreciated in Latvia as an honourable gesture of solidarity which it most certainly was.
I mean that it was not an act of snatching an opportunity of egoistic self-promotion at the expense of a "deeply troubled neighbour", because if this in a some weird way might just for a second appear closer to the real reasons of getting so much attention to the would-be loan to Latvia, then one must admit that the Estonia's political elite is hardly more mature than their peers in Latvia or Lithuania, or anywhere else in the post-Soviet realm.
If it is the fiscal surplus during some most recent years before the global financial crisis that now allows Estonia to join the euro that, in blogger K.S.'s eyes, qualifies Estonia Nordic, not all this soft stuff, then Latvia is bound to become Nordic practically in no time, say by 2014.
Obviously, it's not the euro that does or doesn't make Estonia Nordic. To the same extent, the visit of President Zatlers to Moscow and certainly not the extra 40 minutes of President Medvedev's precious time that do or don't make Latvia drifting more towards Russia or less Nordic than Estonia.
It's the identification. The Estonians seem to have many reasons to believe they are just as Nordic as the Finns who themselves used to be Baltic some 90 years ago, after which, in the 1930s the Finns changed their mind, changed their flag and proclaimed themselves Nordic.
No doubt, Estonia, if Nordic, is destined to become a junior one for a rather long while, until the other elder brethren, such as Sweden, Denmark and Norway, the "viking" Nordics, award Estonia with an "official" membership or this elitist club. Acknowledged by someone or not, Estonia has all rights to identify itself with whatever it wishes to.
And I'm sure Latvia is as Nordic as its neighbours, Estonia or Finland. This is only a matter of taste, what features of your history, culture, mentality or everyday life you would put on the forefront. Estonia shares the language part of its identity with Finland, while with Latvia it shares the past 800 years of its history and its culture.
To: Vanes Sirac
"Trying to distance itself from your neighbours .."
Well, distance between the capitals of Estonia and Finland is about 80 km. I dare say that I am not exaggerating when I am saying that Estonia and Finland are neighbors.
The difference between standard Finnish and standard Estonian is comparable with the difference between standard Estonian and the Võru dialect that is spoken in the South-East.
Finland is much more advanced society than Estonia. While we have learned a lot from Finland there is still much to learn. During this learning process the differences between Estonia and Finland are fading away. Similar process has been taking place between Finland and Sweden during the 20th century as Sweden used to be much more advanced country.
I believe there is nothing wrong in that when you are learning best practices from others.
Modern democracy and science were born in Greece .. so .. we all are "Greeks" in a way as for us it is natural to believe in democratic government and in science.
Estonia is Nordic country as it is located in the North of Europe and Estonia is Baltic country as is bordering the Baltic sea. Estonia is not a Scandinavian country as it is not located on the Scandinavian peninsula.
To claim that Latvia is shaping a course towards Kremlin or that Lithuania is drifting towards an autocratic regime is a bit far-fetched, to say the least.
And it's not clear why adopting Euro somehow makes Estonia a Nordic country. Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Sweden are all using their national currencies.
Also - the centre of Europe is to the East from the centre of Estonia (and both Latvia and Lithuania), meaning that there is no way Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania can be considered to be Eastern European geographically.