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Italy's budget

Did Monti give them a raw deal?

Dec 5th 2011, 17:50 by J.H. | ROME

WELL, the markets liked it. Today, after Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Monti, outlined a three-year package of fiscal adjustments worth €30 billion ($40 billion), the Milan bourse took wing. Shares closed almost 3% up on the day, by far the best performance among the bigger European stock exchanges.

More significantly, perhaps, the yield on Italian sovereign bonds plunged. The spread over safe-haven German debt securities fell below 400 basis points for the first time in more than a month.

The markets’ reaction to Mr Monti's announcement made for an encouraging start to a decisive week for the euro, and indeed the European Union itself. The package has unquestionably put Italy in a stronger position to face the capital markets next year, when more than €300 billion of its €1.9 trillion debt will need to be refinanced.

It contained yet another raft of austerity measures to add to the many already loaded on to Italians by Silvio Berlusconi's government. But Mr Monti also (and for the first time) signalled that he was serious about promoting growth in sluggish Italy. Fully €10 billion of the savings are to be reinvested with this aim. The package includes a tax break aimed at encouraging firms to expand their workforces, a liberalisation of shop opening hours and measures to promote infrastructure development.

Not that results are expected any time soon. Mr Monti’s deputy finance minister, Vittorio Grilli (Mr Monti is serving as his own finance minister), said that the government was pencilling in a fall in GDP of up to 0.5% next year, with the outlook flat for 2013.

That, and the risk (noted by Mr Monti) that Italy could go way the way of Greece, will make it harder for Italians to protest at the steps taken by the government. Even so, the draft budget, which was approved in an emergency cabinet session yesterday, arrived in parliament amid widespread dissatisfaction.

There were two main criticisms. Economists and commentators were almost united in decrying the package's heavy reliance on tax increases— €17-18 billion of the total, according to Mr Grilli. The same criticism was repeatedly levelled at measures introduced by the last government under Mr Berlusconi.

A property tax on first houses—a levy abolished by Mr Berlusconi—is to be reintroduced; capital repatriated under a 2009 amnesty is to be taxed for a second time (a questionably retrospective measure); there are proposed new levies on private aircraft and luxury cars and higher excise on petrol. Just to be sure, the government has tucked up its sleeve the possibility of a 2% rise in value-added tax next September.

The cuts are more timid: the scrapping of a few public bodies and the reduction (but not abolition) of the provincial administrations, with the rest of the savings foisted on to regional governments in a manner also reminiscent of Mr Berlusconi’s approach.

Though they will not be immediate, significant savings will come from the budget’s shake-up of pensions. But that is also a reason for the second main criticism of the package: that, despite Mr Monti’s promises of fairness, too much is being loaded on to the poor. It worried not only the trade unions and the centre-left, but also the Catholic church. A representative of the Italian Bishops’ Conference said the budget “could have been fairer”.

The government has, in effect, abolished Italy’s unique years-in-work system of calculating pensionable age so that, from the beginning of next year, women will be unable to retire before the age of 62 and men before the age of 66. That may not stir much sympathy for Italians in the rest of Europe, where retirement ages are already mostly higher.

But for existing pensioners the budget held a genuinely nasty surprise: only the minimum pensions will be protected from inflation next year. The effect that could have on some of the most vulnerable members of Italian society was acknowledged in dramatic fashion at a press conference when the welfare minister, Elsa Fornero, was overcome by emotion as she announced the decision.

The budget did not include a one-off wealth tax. Nor did it raise the top rate of income tax. But that was because of pressure from Mr Berlusconi’s party. It still has the power to bring down Mr Monti’s new, "technocratic" government in the Senate. And the budget, though endorsed by the cabinet, has yet to be approved in parliament.

Readers' comments

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longman333

Monti's measures are laughable. Some of them are even wrong: the Constitution doesn't provide for the retrospective of a law (the s.c.tax-shield with its 5%). Monti wants the people who brought back their capitals paying 5% accorging to the law now to pay 1,50% more. This Monti is an ignorant person....as every economist who are all stargazers and nothing else.

Ravello

With a large-scale tax evasion, Italian GDP figures are inaccurate:

If an enterprise registers growth, then that extra earning will be taxed to the hilt.

Thus, the extra earning is hidden to evade tax, consequence is that Italian GDP growth appears tiny in the good times, and drops when all other nations' GDP falls.

Cash trading and off-shore invoicing fuel tax evasion.

Berlusconi dropped cash trading controls in 2008.

Berlusconi is on trial for tax evasion by off-shore invoicing.

Military spending by Italy is conditioned by its NATO commitment - if you are in NATO you are in, if you are out of NATO then you are a potential enemy.

The apparent thievery at Finmeccanica, or 'Why Not', shows that those on huge State salaries, and those with the 'Eminent' connections, are as prone to crooked practice as any of Italy's small-time and big-time gangsters.

Clandestine organised crime syndicates exist and operate globally, not only in the south of Italy.

Only fools or the naive believe that Italian crime sydicates do not operate in the north of the country.

Strange for a country that is in such desperate need for income that it chooses to give tax exemptions to business enterprises run by the Vatican State, making non-Vatican enterprises uncompetitive.

Also, the Italian State has chosen to gift radio frequency concessions instead of auctioning them to the highest bidder.

A move that favours the current players like Berlusconi's Mediaset. As a result SkyItalia has withdrawn from the process.

It will take time to steer the good ship Italia back on course.

But the pirate, by means of the Senate, still has control of the rudder.

DBevilacqua

I think Italy needs these measures, even if they affect too much on the poor and the middle class, but I don't think this is matter of the new technical government. This is the fault of the rich managing class present in the Italian Parliament. And unfortunately, if this is the price to pay to save Italy we have to do it.

E_A_S

Too much stick and not enough carrots!
Economists and commentators are right in decrying the heavy reliance on tax. Taxes when too high
can only bring about recession.
A better job could also have been made with pensions. As mentioned in the article, the pension shake-up
will not bring immediate benefits.
One cannot fail to be deluded by Monti's lack of imagination. Italy needs money to refinance its debt
fast, it needs to shift its debt burden from international lenders to national savers.
Italy has lower debt level than Japan, but is more exposed to the the whims of foreigners. This
needs to change.
A simple scheme which could achieve this would be to trade, lower pensions benefits for pensioners
for higher overall remuneration.
1) Pensioner only non-taxable 10 year bonds BTP (Buoni del Tesoro per le Pensioni) offering an incredible 12% interest rate and transferable to heirs without any tax if the pensioner dies while in possession of the bonds.
The heirs would continue to benefit from the tax-free interest and 12% rate.
2) To subscribe this scheme, a pensioner must forfeit an amount of his current pension in the first
years in which he joins the scheme which is compensated by a factor of two by the interest rates from
the bonds. To compensate for inflation, the pension amount forfeited tends to zero towards the end of the
10 year term.

The offer it too good to miss out. In the first years it would in effect cost the Italian government
only 6%; the current market rate for Italian debt. It would also increase the spending power of pensioners.
Similar but less advantageous schemes have been used before by Italian governments.

The result of the move would be to bring Italy's position closer to that of Japan. Of course government expenses will have to be better managed, wasteful projects avoided, tax evasion reduced and labor reforms
carried out.

I am sure that Economist readers can make more and better suggestions on how the Italian debt crisis can be solved than the ones that have been made so far.

longman333

Fornero's tears = She shed only crocodile tears. Very moving! Ah,Ah,Ah!!!

BrightTony in reply to longman333

Hi Longman,
I never wish to dispute on anybody's emotional temper as well as I think, in any way, that her bills shall be a sad matter as much or more, for citizens who really shall endorse that. Yeah, worldwide we have a certain fame - usual people's commonplace throughout the world - for being emotional characters, in many persons' view. Do you remember, for example, Berlusconi breaking also into tears, when he had heard of a foundering immigrants' boat from Albania?
In this case we shouldn't despise Berlusconi, should we? Crocodiles don't live in the sea, neither so in the Adriatic.

john4law

You cannot simply tax your way to fiscal sanity. Governments and their constituents must face up to what all the money is being spent for. They must answer the question whether the country really needs much less can afford over half the wealth produced in Italy or any society being dispensed by vote seeking politicians.

BrightTony

...Nor did it raise the top rate of income tax. But that was because of pressure from Mr Berlusconi’s party".

That's once again meaningful. I also feel suspicious toward Di Pietro's continuous critical attitude to everything. Although I am still convinced that the current government shall stay in office just to comply with the own scheduled agenda issues, I agree with Mr Di Pietro arguing that "military spending" shall be further cut from the budget. I wish to be clear: I am not any pacifist. Saying "military spending" we may mean, though improperly, a lot of money governments have always poured at the military's benefit, just for their amusing and amazing recreation parties at which everybody may be invited just as being an official's friend, relative or any well-esteemed or beloved person. Other money waste, really useless and harmful in the present time, armed forces members have been getting advantage from on their own, which are not on the real defence and public order purpose, shall be cut as well. The military, however, is not the only waste hole in the public establishment a great deal of spending for shall be cut.
I hope this real aspect may be going to be considered soon and soon solved.

stefano de santis in reply to BrightTony

@BRIGHT TONY.While BAGEHOT talks somewhere else of the "greatness of the two nations(speaking about France and Britain)",and "military collaboration making wonders"you ask for the reduction of the military expenses of Italy,which means,Tony,that you do not want the french disturbing F 35 program,that could allow our fighterbombers to fly over France totally unseen and drop on the Tour Eiffel a bunch of pictures of Berlusconi and D'Alema(who accepted,God bless him,the program).How is weather in Paris today,Tony?

BrightTony in reply to stefano de santis

Hi Stefano, I hope the weather in Paris has been good today as it has in Padua, the Italian town I live at and I am writing from.
On the other hand, about military spending, I just advise you to read my comment again and better. As I pointed out in that post, I am not an uncondiitonal pacifist; you just should look at that and which "military spending" I am going to refer to. That does not refer to defence, strategy or national security whatsoever; just a public money pouring which is at present time a useless waste.

ReformedEconomist

Mr. Monti sounds like a man who knows what he is doing. In harsh economic and political situations, it only makes sense that cuts will be made in areas that come close to the voters. The package is far from perfect, but the situation is far from stable. Cuts that provide security are where Italy needs to focus.

LosingCause

pension reform is urgent when debt is huge and you have a rapidly aging population. what is needed is to get rid of of the "pay go" system and introduce one based on individual accounts.

Italian patriot

Taking money from the ritired people and giving it to the banks without any kind of cuts and savings in the public administration - IT'S A SHAME. This government has not been even elected democraticaly.

NO FOR EUROPE OF BANKS!

Explorer71

For the few who care, an update on provinces.

The law states that Regions must reassing powers to Regions or municipalities by April 2012, or else Parliament will kick in (e.g., if the marten does not guard the chickens well, the fox will be called in). If this is done, accordingly to plan, the effects of the new law, experts say, will kick in in November 2012 as the new regulations should prompt provincial administrators to resign.

This gives politians (they have started already) at least three distinct ways to block the law, and enormous time to lobby.

And, yes, the banks, who got their minister in Mr Passera, the former head of Banca Intesa, who of course has no conflict of interest, got a great, sweet deal - perhaps much needed, but did we need a top banker as a key minister?

Oh, Monti, Monti.

guest-iiamwej

why don't they mention tax evasion which is the biggest problem ? Monti introduced a no cash transaction over a certain amount rule, but I don't think this is enough. In Italy most of small private business declaire minimum, like dentists who declair round 16 000 euro per year but earn way more. The government is burdening already heavily taxed citizens and it is not touching the ones who evade taxes. This is the biggest problem in Italy and I wish the writer of this article mentioned this topic.

Explorer71 in reply to guest-iiamwej

>why don't they mention tax evasion which is the biggest problem ? Monti introduced a no cash transaction over a certain amount rule, but I don't think this is enough. In Italy most of small private business declaire minimum, like dentists who declair round 16 000 euro per year but earn way more. The government is burdening already heavily taxed citizens and it is not touching the ones who evade taxes. This is the biggest problem in Italy and I wish the writer of this article mentioned this topic.

I disagree.

In fact, tax evasion has been a very unfair but effective way to promote businesses and the economy. This has worked very well especially in Southern Italy where the official politically correct line would not allow lower taxes or salaries. Yes, very unfair - but then what do 90% of Italians give about fairness?

I strongly doubt some sectors of our economy would have worked if it had to bear the offical tax rate. And the mantra "if all paid taxes, there would be lower taxes" is a gross lie, as the political patronoage system would have eaten up any extra income.

I am quite convinced that more effective tax enforcement will not produce the expected gains, unless tax rates are beforehand consistenty reduced, but will only depress the economy, and result in less, not more renew.

PS: I am all for fairness. But totally against the mantras of our politics/media system.

MilovanDjilas

Ten Reasons to Support Sicilian Independence:

1) Because an island has no border problems.

2) Because 150 years after the Risorgimento, the Sicilians still do not consider themselves "Italians". Besides, Sicilian should and could easily be upgraded to the status of a full language.

3) Because the war against the Mafia can only be fought by Sicilians, not by the rest of the country against Sicilians.

4) Because currently, Sicily is the "tail that wags the dog" - Italy is governed from Sicily: to no benefit of the Sicilian people at all.

5) Because the talk about the Euro being too "German" or too "over-valued" for Italian competitiveness is rubbish; that argument looks a lot more valid however, if we look at Sicilian exports.

6) Because 5.1 million Sicilians are about the same number as Finns, and are more numerous than the Irish, Slovenians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Luxembourgeois, Maltese, Cypriots and soon-to-enter Croatians.

7) Because without Sicilian votes, Berlusconi would never have arrived to government.

8) Because the dictum "For things to remain the same, everything must first change" regards Sicily, not Italy.

9) Because the old saying from Catania - "Without Italy, Sicily is afraid; without Sicily, Italy counts little" - no longer holds in 2011. Some 55 million Italians can get along quite well without Sicily, while Sicilians would still be within the EU and NATO, with protection for its shores from Italian, European and North American sources - and with money from Brussels to further its economic development (quite possibly outside of the Euro).

10) Because the option of retaining Italian citizenship could be easily extended to Sicilians (just as was done after Irish independence in the first half of the 20th century) who would have no official nor unofficial obstacles to coming to the Continent to look for work.

DogSoup

> despite Mr Monti’s promises of fairness, too much is being loaded on to the poor

A good rule of thumb for judging reforms is how they deal with the politically powerful but economically weak (usually: government employees, unions, and protected industry). The economically strong do well out of reforms and the politically weak get screwed either way.

300 billion euros to refinance in the next year sounds like a lot - I hope the Italian people realize that serious reforms will be less painful than the alternative.

013715

At 4% of gdp, the italian deficit is lower than most. Contracting it by 2% per year, two years in a row when gdp is decreasing is needless, self-inflicted suffering.
Fine, you don't reason with panicky investors. But it is quite worrying that the only way to placate them is to shoot one's own foot, by balancing an already reasonable budget during a recession.

Anjin-San

Until and unless Signor Monti is serious about eliminating the "underground economy" of Italy, none of this will work. The same applies to Greece, for that matter. No reform will work until and unless the Underground Economy is either destroyed or forced to come above ground at the minimum.

MilovanDjilas in reply to Anjin-San

Anjin-San,
The underground economy in Italy was thought to represent around 30% of our gdp back in the 1980's. This theory was also supported by higher sales of domestic consumption items than in the UK or France at the time.
Since then, the need to qualify for Maastricht 15 years ago, the increasing internationalisation of our economy, and most importantly, the threat of Islamic fundamentalism/terrorism and the consequent need to crack down on "untraceable" monies floating around our economy has led to significant reductions in the underground sector - which is now calculated by experts at around 17.5%. This is only a few points higher than in most other European and North American countries. In essence, also in this sense Italy is not Greece.
In reality, I doubt that it will be greatly possible to crack down further on the underground economy. There are some structural/juridical problems. For example, probably the greatest blow to the underground economy would be for us to legalise all drugs. Are we ready for this radical cure?

A particularly "Italian" problem (at least in Europe) regards our four regions (out of 20) that are mafia-infested. In those regions, all bets are off with regard to Economic statistics; but then again, those regions have never counted very much in the national GDP stats either... Once again, in that sense, I think the best attack against the mafias would be the "radical" solution of Sicilian independence. I am not sure the country is ready for that... On the other hand... this Italy is not working, is it?

My principal complaint with the "austerity" package: where are the cuts to the "golden pensions"? Papandreou cut all pensions over 3000 monthly by 40%. We should do the same. We are forever talking about reforming pensions for 2027 when our budget problems are immediate and mostly regard the excessive monies paid to undeserving beneficiaries TODAY. Current pension expenses represent 16.6% of GDP. This is a ridiculous figure, unmatched by any country in the world. If this knot were addressed, we would have a balanced budget NOW.
So, apparently Monti's government, with the oldest average age in the history of the Republic, contains people who cry about pensioners not receiving an inflation adjustment. Pfah! Why do 80-year-olds "need" a pension of €10,000 monthly and why could they not survive with €6000 instead? And no, I seriously doubt the taxes they paid in to the system during their working career justify on a numerical basis those pensions. (They receive those excessive pensions under the old rules).

Someone should explain to the pensioners that if Italy goes into default, they will not receive their cheques at all.

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In this blog, our correspondents respond to breaking news stories and provide comment and analysis. The blog takes its name from newsbooks, the 16th- and 17th-century precursors to newspapers, which covered battles, disasters, debates and sensational trials

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