Nov 4th 2011, 15:55 by P.C.
LUFTHANSA is desperately keen to rid itself of its money-losing British subsidiary bmi—and now, it seems, it will soon do so. IAG, the parent company of British Airways and Iberia, said this morning it had reached agreement in principle to buy bmi, and expected to close the deal early next year. Virgin Atlantic had also expressed an interest, hoping to integrate bmi’s short- and medium-haul routes in Europe, the Middle East and Africa with its own transatlantic routes to form a strong, Heathrow-based hub-and-spoke network.
More alarming to Virgin than losing this opportunity is that the deal tightens the grip that its archrival, BA, and its oneworld alliance partners have on Heathrow, London’s main hub airport. If IAG were allowed to keep all of bmi’s takeoff and landing slots at Heathrow, its share of these would rise from about 45% to 53%. Speaking on BBC Radio this morning, IAG’s boss, Willie Walsh, made the point that this would be a far lower share of slots than Lufthansa and its Star Alliance partners have at Frankfurt, or that Air France and its fellow SkyTeam airlines have at Paris Charles de Gaulle. True, but two near-monopolies do not justify a third.
The assumption is that notwithstanding Mr Walsh’s arguments, Britain’s Competition Commission will make IAG sell some of the bmi slots, which therefore could present an opportunity for another airline to strengthen its position at Heathrow. Aer Lingus, for one, says it is interested. The Irish airline presently leases some of its slots there and wants to increase the share that it owns. It would also use the slots to cash in on what it says is a surprisingly strong demand from businesspeople to fly between Britain and Ireland (north and south). And of course if it could lay on more flights from Heathrow, it could feed more passengers into its transatlantic flights via Dublin and Shannon.
Cartels in the sky
That in itself might give transatlantic flyers more options but, overall, putting more Heathrow slots into the hands of oneworld would seem to reduce the competition for flights between London and North America. Furthermore, once Lufthansa has rid itself of money-losing bmi, it will then be better able to contemplate buying another European airline so as to feed its passengers into Star Alliance’s transatlantic flights. As a recent report from Aviation Economics and Davy Research notes, the three big airline alliances, oneworld, Star and SkyTeam, do very nicely from operating officially sanctioned cartels across the Atlantic, in which their operations are so closely co-ordinated as to amount to virtual mergers. The more European short-haul travellers each of them can feed into these money-making machines, the stronger the cartels get.
Aer Lingus, despite not belonging to any of the alliances, is interested in folding its transatlantic routes into one of the three cartels. But it is also at risk of being bought up by one of the alliances’ member airlines. The Irish government wants to sell its 25% stake in Aer Lingus; and Ryanair, another Irish carrier, is thought likely to accept any decent offer for its near-30% stake. So the danger is that Aer Lingus’s routes between Europe and North America follow bmi’s in getting swallowed up by one of the three cartels.
Is there an alternative that would preserve choice for transatlantic travellers? Well, Abu Dhabi’s fast-growing network airline, Etihad, has expressed an interest in buying the Irish government’s shares in Aer Lingus, though the European Union’s foreign-ownership restrictions would bar Etihad from taking control of the Irish carrier. Etihad—which has steadfastly refused to join any of the three global airline alliances—is also said to have been interested in joining Virgin’s now apparently failed bid for bmi, and in buying a stake in Virgin itself. Imagine a merged Virgin and Aer Lingus, with Etihad taking a big but non-controlling stake: Etihad’s extensive route network out to the Middle East and Asia, combined with Virgin’s and Aer Lingus’s strong North Atlantic connections. Sounds interesting, to say the least. What do Gulliver readers think?
Read on: Britain's opposition drops its support for a third runway at Heathrow
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One of the big tragedies for those of us flying regularly between London and Warsaw was when Lufthansa took control of BMA, they took away this third option of a direct route between Warsaw and London, and instead made the only alternatives to fly through Frankfurt, Amsterdam and at that time Paris or further afield. To have gotten BMA into the Virgin fold would have been potentially good news, to provide more competition for the large players. I think getting Etihad into the competion with Virgin would be good for the public flying in Europe where its either the real cut price airways or the expensive ones.
I'm somewhat disappointed by this news. I admit that I'm a United Airlines (Star Alliance) frequent flyer from the US. This will make connections more difficult to other destinations in the UK that bmi was serving and make it more expensive due to lack of competition out of Heathrow. As much as it is a gain for IAG, it's a loss for consumers connecting to other UK destinations via London. I am fully aware of the low cost operators in the UK (easyJet and RyanAir) but these are not real options for passengers coming from across the pond to reach other UK destinations. As much as I would like to see bmi continue as a Star Alliance partner, for competition's sake, I think that it would be in all consumers' best interests that it be sold to someone other than IAG.
I think that this analysis is flawed because creating a 4th alliance (which is essentially what Virgin, Lingus and Etihad would be doing, though a very week one) would not address how most people travel today. The lack of strong hub and spoke networks with easy 1 stop connections (though many travelers favor direct routes) is the flaw in this proposed 4th alliance. The small 4th alliance would be handicapped because of the need to route travelers through too many hubs to get to destinations that can’t be reached via direct flights. It would be far better for travelers, from a cost and ease of travel perspective, to have 3 strong alliances. Thus, the British authorities should look for disposal of gate slots to one of two other strong alliances.
"two near-monopolies do not justify a third."
Not sure of the near-monopoly logic here. When you regard airports with a lot of connecting flights, for it to be a near-monopoly, you need to look at all the origin-destination traffic - globally. The BA/BMI presence at LHR, COMPETES with the connection traffic at Frankfurt/Munich, Amsterdam, Paris etc. Add to this the connection options through the fast-growing Middle East - especially Emirates.
The options for a London resident like myself, I also can fly from Stansted, Luton and Gatwick - and have done so on many occasions. So Heathrow isn't that near-monopoly as often used as an argument. Also keep in mind, when looking at price competition, taxes often make up over 50% of an airfare, which is not in the control of the airline. Price rises are often not down to airline competition (or lack of), it is the airport authorities and governments that have their hand in the till as air travellers are easy targets.
The proposed BA/BMI combination makes sense. It allows BA (and Britain) to compete against strong, aggressive competitors on the Continent, as well as the Middle East. Restricting BA from competing at Heathrow won't stop other countries from stealing passengers, or protect consumers from rising airfares.
It is a global market (I am surprised The Economist has to be reminded of this) and a 'near-monopoly' at a single airport is, in my opinion, a very simplistic and narrow view.
@G59yYDokF6
Good point on competing airports but "taxes often make up over 50% of an airfare" and "Price rises are often not down to airline competition (or lack of)" are way out of line with reality.
Nate Silver the New York Times's in-house statistician did a study of US air fares and found that "Passengers flying to or from airports that are dominated by a single carrier — like Memphis, Newark or Dallas/Fort Worth — pay fares 20 or 30 percent higher than at non-hub airports."
@Jeepers: What is way out of line is using US examples for the European competitive situation. Let me share with you what is reality for us in London.
Example: (using US$ as a common currency) - a Heathrow to Amsterdam flight at $185 return is a typical fare. Only $44 is the airfare. There are 6 taxes included on this roundtrip adding up to $141.
Using a transat example of a $670 roundtrip to Heathrow-JFK, a whopping $483.40 is taken in 8 taxes by the UK and US.
THAT is reality. These are typical fares that I have paid. In fact, if you travel in Business, the GB taxes skyrocket.
Also what is reality is that BA has tons of competition on most of its' routes, and doesn't compete on many more. A 54% share for BA at Heathrow IS NOT the same as an 86% share for AA at DFW, and US carriers don't compete with fast, efficient rail travel as we have here in Europe.
I am sure that the relevant competition authorities will take a close look at the competitive situation. It is what they do so well. But I doubt that they will stand in the way, and probably settle on a few slots being sold or one or two conditions being applied. Competition is healthy, and consumers are getting a good deal from Heathrow. It's the airport and government taxes that are killing us.
I would prefer a Virgin purchase of bmi, given that bmi's demise looks likely to mean a BA monopoly on flights to Heathrow from my UK regional airport. If I need to be in London, that is not a big deal as there are plenty of point-to-point alternatives in the London area. However, if I want to connect through Heathrow, as I do from time to time, I will be left with BA/OneWorld and no realistic alternative. My experience - anecdotal, I admit - is also that BA flights are significantly more delayed out of Heathrow than bmi flights. I do not think that BA gaining a monopoly on the route will improve matters.
While I hear what others are saying about the question of whether or not BA has/will have a monopoly at Heathrow after a takeover, I am inclined to agree with Gulliver. Just because there are near-monopolies at CDG and Frankfurt it does not follow that the UK should do the same at Heathrow. Why cannot BA serve destinations in APAC out of Gatwick or, indeed, Stansted?
I wonder what the other Star Alliance members who fly out of Heathrow have to say about all this, given the impact it will have on the level of their connecting traffic transiting through Heathrow.
I agree that the base airfare is frequently a small proportion of the total. Where I disagree, though, is your implicit assertion that the rest is outside the airline's control.
I can't duplicate your example exactly, but I've taken a typical BA round-trip flight from Heathrow to Amsterdam. BA claims that the fare is £40, plus £88 of taxes and charges, making £128. That seems to prove your point. But let's look more closely at those £88.
Genuine government-imposed taxes:
£12 UK Air Passenger Duty
Airport charges (NOT taxes, merely input costs to the airline)
£21.80 Heathrow passenger service charge (PSC)
£13.10 Amsterdam PSC
£1.80 Amsterdam Noise Isolation charge
£11.10 Amsterdam Security charge
Total airport charges £47.80
(Note - although I'm not suggesting it is the case here - that it is common for airlines starting new routes, or a certain Irish airline at any time, to negotiate deals with airports whereby the airline collects the full airport charge, but only remits part to the airport and keeps the rest as a hidden revenue stream.)
Airline-imposed charges
£24.00 fuel surcharge
£5.00 insurance and security surcharge (what?)
Total £29.00
So in fact of the £128 fare, only £12 is a tax in the sense of a sum paid to a government. Yes, the airline has to pay passenger service charges and so on, but it also has to pay crew, aircraft leases, and so on, and it doesn't break those out as separate charges.
Air Lingus, Virgin & Etihad together would be a substantial competitor; but the best overall, long term solution, surely, is to opt for one mega airport in the Thames estuary? Costly, yes; but given Britain's geographical position as the world's major hub, to bite the bullet is surely the logical thing to do.
Trunty,
Nonsense.
Virgin and Aer Lingus are both very efficient operations - they would leverage assets more intensely, by getting the planes to spend more time in the sky (quicker turn around times), getting more bums on seats, getting rid of excess staff, getting rid of the Lufthansa labor regulations overhead, and using airport slots more intensely.
BA has higher operating costs and fewer passengers per plane than Lufthansa or BMI. Operating costs would probably increase as a result of merger. BA would profit by increasing its market power, and reducing alternative provision of flights from UK airports. That might involve more BA flights to Asia - or not. Either way, the British public can only lose.
Maximising operational efficiency at LHR will always be difficult given slot restrictions, delays and capacity issues. No airline with a base at LHR will ever able to be as efficient as Ryanair or EasyJet. It's not possible. A 20 minute aircraft turnaround at LHR is not simply possible.
"BA has higher operating costs and fewer passengers per plane than Lufthansa or BMI."
Well IAG is in much better shape than BMI, which lost 154m€ in the nine months to September. IAG made 383m€ during the same period.
BA also has a better load factor than LH group. LH Group doesn't split out load factor for BMI but LH Group's load factor for September year to date is 77.7% vs 79.5 for IAG and 78.5 for BA.
Neither - I'm a student who enjoys flying in the marginal seats (I've never paid more than 50 GBP for a return flight in Europe, and I've been all over Germany, to Sweden, to Poland, to Bulgaria, to Spain and to Italy).
I would love it if there was more competition in short hall - BA still has exclusive rights to a majority of take off capacity at UK airports.
BA constitutes an enormous waste of resources - it is an anticompetitive entity which reduces living standards in the UK significantly. I'm not sure why there isn't more active campaigning for a forced break-up. I guess it's a combination of trade union sympathy on the left, warped nationalism/ dirigism on the right, and pure apathy/ resignation in the middle.
But at very least, this merger can't go ahead. And if anybody reading this has influence, realize that - while there's plenty of controversy in tackling special interest groups - the average person will benefit tremendously. Political support might not be forthcoming, but it will come afterwards - once people see the benefits.
"BA still has exclusive right to a majority of take off capacity at UK airports"
BA sold its provincial network to Flybe and bases its operations at LCY, LHR and LGW. From other UK airports they only fly to one or all of the London airports. BA has very little capacity share outside of London. EasyJet, Ryanair and even KLM are probably bigger.
Also calling BA an anti-competitive entity in one of Europe's most competitive air transport markets (if not the most competitive does not really hold ground. LHR is just a part of the overall UK's air transport network.
This merger makes sense.
The article fails to mention a number of points:
The air transport market to and from London does not just consist of Heathrow. London is also served by Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and City making London much more competitive than Frankfurt (Main & Hahn) or Paris (CDG, Orly, Beauvais). BA's dominance at Heathrow is offset by a high level of competition from low cost carriers at the other airports. London is both Ryanair's and easyJet's largest market.
There is currently only limited direct competition between BA and bmi. BA will gain a monopoly on services between LHR and Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Manchester. These three destinations are also served by other carriers from other London airports.
bmi does not fly to and from the US. There will be no reduction of services between LHR to the US if BA buys bmi.
BA can use the new slots to strengthen its Asian network thereby offering more competition to Air France, Lufthansa and the Gulf carriers. BA's current Asian network is limited compared to its competitors.
Virgin and Aer Lingus makes very little sense.
We mustn't permit this merger.
IAG already has far too much market power. BA is incredibly expensive and uncompetitive, with average short haul ticket prices some 4 to 15 times the equivalent fares from Ryanair, Easy Jet or Air Lingus.
BA has ancient and fuel thirsty planes; their planes spend most of their time sat about on the ground; they have one of the worst on-time records in the UK (and that's from routine operations - not counting the industrial disputes); the company is over-staffed; they hemorrhage cash; they have enormous market power (combination of having bought up exclusive slots at most existing airports, and government regulation that prevents new airport construction); most of their planes are half empty.
BA is already far too powerful, and needs to be broken up by the competition authorities.
The merger with Iberia should never have been allowed; the proposed merger with BMI must never happen. At that level, there are no real scale economies in the airline industry, and no efficiency savings that could benefit consumers. This is all about market power and monopolistic pricing.
It is not in our interest. Block this merger!!!
Shaun39.....can't work out whether you work for Virgin or Ryanair?
Yes I was wondering if all the BA planes were fuel thirsty but they leave them "sat on the ground" wouldn't that save lots of money?
I do not work for for either but strongly agree with Shaun39
The UK aviation industry is uniquely competitive with the extensive presence of low cost carriers, the 170-odd airlines that operate into London and in having two scheduled longhaul carriers based from its principle airport. The industry, and particularly the full-service segment, faces significant structural issues as well as the additional pressure of the highest airport duty in Europe and extremely volatile financial performance. If we are to ensure a sustainable, diverse marketplace then consolidation is an inevitable consequence and we should not be afraid of allowing BA to grow its presence at Heathrow.
Consolidation for hows benefit?.........A near monopoly like Tesco is not the best way forward for the industry
Gulliver I apologize if I digress a little here, but I hate the alliances. I recall a famous cartoon from Australia in the late 70s, when the government only 'allowed' two airlines to operate domestic services. So restricted was the market that the two airlines (Ansett and TAA) even had to operate flights at essentially the same times between city pairs, and offer the same fares. The cartoon then, borne of the public's frustration, was of two planes (one of each airline) joined together by a common wing.
Then came deregulation, and all the relief it brought to the traveling public, in Australia and elsewhere. But now it seems the wheel has turned full circle.
Aer Lingus, Lufthansa, British Airways, United, Air France... who cares? What's the difference? Government regulation has been effectively replaced with de-facto private regulation in the form of these incestuous 'alliances', forced upon us by limited market capacity (availability of physical slots, noise curfews, etc).
Real deregulation has become a cause without a rebel. In the US, Virgin America has come closest in recent years, but we need more. Much, much more.
Whatever happens here with the bmi slots, I don't hold out much hope for real change.
Being from Ireland I welcome any action that saves Aer Lingus, a very necessary bulwark to Ryanair monopolizing the routes to the continent, also interesting about these cartels, it makes sense that Irish flights tend to be quite cheap compared to the rest of Europe when you consider the two biggest airlines (Ryanair & Aer Lingus) are highly competitive.