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Waiting for the green light

Jan 26th 2012, 16:05

Which emerging economies have the most monetary and fiscal firepower?

IF THE euro-area debt crisis worsens, it will drag down growth in emerging economies. The good news is that whereas most developed countries have little or no room to cut interest rates or to increase public borrowing, emerging markets as a group still have lots of monetary and fiscal firepower. This chart, based on an analysis by The Economist, ranks 27 emerging economies according to their policy wiggle-room.

We used five indicators to assess each country’s ability to ease monetary policy: inflation, excess credit (the growth in bank lending minus the growth in nominal GDP), real interest rates, currency movements and current-account balances.
Each country was graded on the five indicators, and the scores were then summed to produce an overall measure of monetary manoeuvrability. Next we devised a fiscal-flexibility index, combining government debt and the budget deficit.

The average of the monetary and fiscal measures produces our overall “wiggle-room index”. Countries are coloured in the chart according to our assessment of their ability to ease policy: “green” means it is safe to let out the throttle, and “red” means the brakes need to stay on. It suggests that China, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have the greatest capacity to use monetary and fiscal policies to support growth. Chile, Peru, Russia, Singapore and South Korea also get the green light. At the other extreme, Egypt, India and Poland have the least room for a stimulus. Argentina, Brazil, Hungary, Pakistan Turkey and Vietnam are also in the red zone.

Click on the tabs at the top of the chart to see rankings of individual indicators.

See here for full article

Readers' comments

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nkab

Dear Editor,

This is good stuff thanks to the Economist. And not to take away anything from it, it’s more useful to me than the McDonald index.

Now if you allow me to nitpick, being engineer rather than economist in training, it’s intuitively easier to understand the fiscal-flexibility index (the overall) chart if you’d plot the complement of all indices and setting 100 as maximum instead.

For example, under the max. indices scheme,

Egypt and India will get index of 15 each instead of 85;
Argentina and Hungary will get index of 30 each instead of 70;
Russia and Singapore will get index of 70 each instead of 30;
Indonesia and Saudi Arabia will get index of 85 each instead of 15;

And so forth. People usually associate 100 being a perfect score than a zero is.

long march

Then what makes Dr. Doom believe that India is better placed than other BRIC nations?

nkab in reply to long march

It does look like India is in some kind of financial fix, doesn’t it?

I think one problem is India’s wanton spending on importing foreign weapons with money it does not have on hand, stressing its options for civilian programs.

enriquecost

RUSSIA is in better position than BRAZIL...
Same with foreign currency reserves, public debt, budget deficit, trade surplus...

So, why "The Economist" always downgrades Russia and upgrades Brazil? Perhaps some investors have lost millions of USD believing politically motivated reports from "The Economist".

vSAjKEsyuQ in reply to Orothen

Are you sure? In this chart, the higher the score, the less freely a country can manipulate its policy. Since Brazil has a much higher score than Russia, I can't see how "the Economist" downgrades Russia and upgrades Brazil in this chart.

enriquecost in reply to vSAjKEsyuQ

When I refer to "The Economist" downgrading Russia I am talking about its reports about Russia, which always portrait it in a very bad way....But all the data (economic indicators) prove that Russia is a successful emerging market, like this chart. This chart shows that Russia is in a better position for growth than Brazil.

nNokn9NVH6 in reply to enriquecost

We might not be considering institutional variables in this comparison. I mean, some might say that Brazil has a better, albeit still corrupt and complicated, tradition of public law than Russia. But you should point out which articles the magazine downgrades Russia comparatively with Brazil.

Jasiek w japonii

The study is obviously based on the loanable funds theory for long-run determinants of interest rates. Interest rates do not change that way.

The vision of the study, identical with the Treasury view, would lead to the wrong idea of expansionary austerity. The recent IMF has been along this line for a couple of decades.

The original role of the Fund was to help developing countries implement expansionary policies at downturns.

(Mainstream new-synthesis economists often criticise the IMF in a similar manner as above and in the sense that the Fund applies the loanable funds theory to short-run determinants of interest rates, but they keep in mind the loanable funds theory for long-run determinants of interest rates. Considering determinants of the schedule of marginal efficiency of capital, however, the loanable funds theory could not be applied to long-run determinants of interest rates, either. When the marginal efficiency of money was extremely low, a mainstream expansionary policy – fiscal or monetary – would only ‘evaporate’, for much of the increased money supply due to the transactions-demand for money encouraged by the authorities would eventually shift from the amount of money held by the transactions- and precautionary-motives to that held by the speculative motives (i.e. the liquidity-preference theory) unless the schedule of the marginal efficiency of money improved. The authorities need to implement policies that would eventually improve the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital, and the mainstream economics lacks the perspective of the relation of long-run determinations of interest rates and the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital).

abe64

Hong-Kong Taiwan and Singapore ans South Korea are considered by UN and IMF as developed economies and countries.

Please clarify by which standards are you referring to. unless erratum.

calm incense in reply to abe64

The Economist presumably referenced MSCI, the index compiler that just recently decided whether to upgrade South Korea and Taiwan from emerging to developed market status in its annual review of country classifications.

Believe it or not, the mood in the local markets was unwelcoming of any potential upgrade, as many traders worried that capital flows would be erratic as emerging portfolios swung out and developed ones swung in. Sharp changes in investment flows are Korea’s primary fear and this fear has manifested itself in a series of capital controls.

MSCI eventually held back on upgrading South Korea and Taiwan, citing accessibility issues in both markets, in particular the lack of full currency convertibility, including the absence of active offshore currency markets, and issues linked to the rigidity of the ID systems.

As for Hong Kong, considering that it's not only politically under the sovereignty of the PRC, but is also rapidly becoming more and more economically and demographically "Mainland-erized" each day, I'd say labeling it as a developing market would be a prescient move.

Maosome in reply to MuaMua

Completely wrong. Hong Kong is the New York of east asia. It is THE dominant financial center in all of Asia.

It has no manufacturing industry. But the service industry is going very strong.

guest-wnlmsmw in reply to MuaMua

According to the IMF, Hong Kong has a higher per capita GDP than the USA and almost 6 times greater than the rest of China. (Honkers also has the second highest life expectancy in the world; 82 years compared to 78 for USA and 73 for PRC.)

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