Aug 16th 2011, 21:02 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
TODAY'S recommended economics writing:
• ECB moves to back Italy and Spain (Washington Post)
• The price of JGB-isation (FT alphaville)
• One possible solution to the euro debt crisis? (Fistful of Euros)
• The ghost of the 1930s (Kantoos)
In this blog, our correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts. Adam Smith argued that in a free exchange both parties benefit, and this blog's aim is to encourage a free exchange of views on economic matters.
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Regarding 'The price of JGB-isation', the difference may come from the well-known fact that the Japanese hold almost all the outstanding 10-year JGBs while the Americans don’t hold all the outstanding 10-year Treasuries and Bonds.
The pricing structure looks unsustainable indeed. What if the Chinese renounced the fixed exchange rate system and started buying in gold instead of buying Treasuries and Bonds, and what if the Japanese decided to buy in gold? Then, how could the US maintain its public finances? I assume that markets expect the situation to gradually emerge, such that they price in a collapse in growth while maintaining high inflation expectations. That is, an aggravation of what you call semi-inflation.
In case of Japan, markets' worry is when their savings will no more hold as much of the public debt as they do today. That means Americanisation. They, however, will have been purchasing much less Treasuries and Bonds by the time they start purchasing much less JGBs, because Japan's trade surplus with the US has been rapidly contracting. In fact, its biggest trade partner is China already.
China is massively investing into infrastructure, where consumption remains very small compared to investment. That may shift reverse as it improves infrastructure, and the Chinese will then certainly come to want to enlarge their purchasing power instead of relying on export. That is the day the regime change.