Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Latvia

Same old Saeima?

Jul 26th 2011, 10:05 by E.L.

CORRUPTION and the role of money in politics, voter apathy, emigration, foreign meddling, battles over history, ethnic integration: though a small country, Latvia is a testing ground for the biggest issues in European politics. The latest twist is that voters have overwhelmingly backed a proposal by the former president Valdis Zatlers to dissolve parliament, the Saiema, which he believes is tainted by tycoon ("oligarch") influence. He has founded a new party which is set to poll strongly in a parliamentary election, due on September 17.

Latvian politics used to be rather dull. Some combination of three tycoon-backed right-of-centre parties ran the country. Two Russian parties, one moderate and one radical, were the opposition. A radical-right party and a liberal centrist grouping formed the rest of the cast. Underneath, Latvia's strong institutions, such as the KNAB anti-corruption agency, and the widely respected president from 1999 to 2007, Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga (a Canadian psychology professor in previous life) kept the ship afloat and seemingly stable. The boom in the years up to 2008 meant plenty of money and few questions.

Now all that has changed. The economic crash (GDP contracted by nearly a quarter from peak to trough) exposed the weakness of an economy based on a credit and construction boom. The biggest local bank, the strangely run Parex, went bust and had to be rescued by the state, which itself had to be rescued in an IMF-led bailout. Perhaps too little blame for this went to politicians who had supervised the boom, and their tycoon backers.

In an election last October voters backed the prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis, who steered the country through a Draconian fiscal tightening (equivalent to 16% of GDP) that has now restored modest economic growth. (For details, see his punchily written book, co-authored with the economist Anders Åslund). Mr Dombrovskis is backed by the Vienotība (Unity) party, which is a shaky coalition of liberal centrists, rightwingers and opportunists.

It rules in an also shaky governing coalition, including one of the "oligarch" parties, the Greens and Farmers union backed by Aivars Lembergs. The government still needs to cut the budget deficit further, by $220m [not $22m as I mistakenly wrote earlier], to get below the 3 % of GDP target in 2012 (it was 7.6 % in 2010). That is a precondition to follow Estonia into the euro zone, planned for 2014 (assuming the common currency still exists by then). Unemployment is nearly 15% [not 25% as in first version of this post] and tens of thousands of Latvians have left to work abroad. Many may find their country's politics an exasperating distraction from the grind of daily life. But it is the indecisive, murky and short-sighted nature of those politics that keeps the country from fulfilling its potential.

Some hope now for a sea change in Latvian politics and the end of the era in which tycoons' money played such a big role. Interestingly, the Tautas partijas (People's Part)y of Andris Šķēle has voted (at his suggestion, link in Latvian) to dissolve itself. President Zatlers nascent party has gained momentum and popularity (though its logo looks suspiciously like the Red Cross symbol which is protected by international law from any political or commercial exploitation). But the polls so far suggest a continued period of uncertainty and stalemate. Only 45% of voters took part in the referendum. The new Zatlers party is polling about 17%, neck and neck with the (moderate) "Russian" party Harmony Centre (the radical Russian party has vanished). Unity is around 11%. Another minority government or messy coalition seems likely. The same old faces will well outnumber any new ones.

Assuming the new dawn must wait, the three big questions are:

  1. Whether the Zatlers party, as likely election winners, would choose Harmony over an "oligarch" Latvian party or the radical-right All for Latvia/LNNK, (choosing "good Russians over bad Latvians" in the eyes of such a move's proponents)
  2. Will Mr Zatlers keep Mr Dombrovskis as prime minister; and
  3. What happens to the incumbent president Andris Bērziņš, elected by the old Saeima to spite Mr Zatlers after he called the referendum.

(I apologise for the holiday-induced delay in getting this blog post up and for the errors)

 

Readers' comments

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Tom_Schmit

Farringdon

Please substantiate this: "a country where pensioners regularly commit suicide in order to escape the humiliation of extreme poverty"

I live in LV and I have not heard of this, even as a rumour.

Didomyk

Farringdon wrote:
" I am not aware of any other similar events in the subsequent rather happy and prosperous 50 years of Soviet Latvia"

Looks like its all because you have been dreaming in technicolor after consuming excessive doses of some substance offered to you by a suspect street vendor. How long have you been taking it ? It may have a permanent effect and the process may well be irreversible.

Farringdon

"You are rebutting what you allege to be an "intellectually disingenuous argument" with one that simply reeks of legalistic casuistry, rigorist sophistry and intellectual sleight of hand. How disingenuous is that? Mere theorizing from an ivory tower?

Believe me, those Latvians who experienced on their own skin what they did in the years of terror - including death and horrendous torture, knew that they were dealing with foes, not friends, and that yes, indeed, their country was being taken over by malevolent forces; and if that's not a definition of occupation I don't know what is."

Au contraire, my friend. If Latvians want to base a substantial part of their foreign policy on this dubious occupation business, they must get the facts and the law right. What you call legalistic casuistry is the language of international organisations to whom Baltic states are trying to sell their product in the form of this idea of historical collective pain. Emotive statements alone do not do it.

What horrific torture are you talking about, incidentally. Admittedly, there was that horrid instance of deportations in 1940, but I am not aware of any other similar events in the subsequent rather happy and prosperous 50 years of Soviet Latvia.

JVilks

By the way, your researcher is obviously asleep if you wonder why AS wants to dissolve TP.

As well as taking a shellacking in the election, TP was faced with a very large fine for having violated the constraints on advertising in previous elections – many years ago - and refusing to pay the fine.

Obviously AS will continue his work through other parties, as Lembergs has done several times (perhaps many times) before. Whenever there was a critical vote coming against him, he simply paid a few members of parliament to swap parties or vote the 'correct' way. Some think that SCP is TP2 but there is no proof, and not much suspicion yet according to the voting record.

Murmul

Farrington,

You are rebutting what you allege to be an "intellectually disingenuous argument" with one that simply reeks of legalistic casuistry, rigorist sophistry and intellectual sleight of hand. How disingenuous is that? Mere theorizing from an ivory tower?

Believe me, those Latvians who experienced on their own skin what they did in the years of terror - including death and horrendous torture, knew that they were dealing with foes, not friends, and that yes, indeed, their country was being taken over by malevolent forces; and if that's not a definition of occupation I don't know what is.

I suppose that if someone attacked you in the street and hit you around the head with a blunt instrument you would assert that according to "international law" you had not been done any harm because the required "confluence of factors" had not been met and it was not possible to "prove" that you had been injured.

No? I thought not; so why do you display such cold detachment towards the injuries of others?

Didomyk

Farringdon wrote: "the mere existence of these two documents (which in any event make no explicit reference to occupation) prove, as a matter of international law, that the Baltic states were occupied by the Soviet Union..."

Are you trying to write a commedy ? Or to argue which is it - the night follows day or the day follows night ?

The Hitler-Stalin pact provided the essential framework for all subsequent events including the occupation, the annexation, the deportations, etc. etc. Don't try to re-write history.

When will you argue that there was no Hitler's annexation of Austria, no annexation of Sudetenland, no annexation of about one half of western Poland into the Reich, etc. etc. ?

Farringdon

"But your problem continues to be your refusal to accept historic facts including the Hitler-Stalin pact and the related secret protocol of Sept. 1939."

You are quite wrong. The Pact and the Protocol are recognised as genuine documents and I do not dispute their authenticity. I am simply rebutting your intellectually disingenuous argument that the mere existence of these two documents (which in any event make no explicit reference to occupation) prove, as a matter of international law, that the Baltic states were occupied by the Soviet Union. It does not. Occupation is a complex area of international law and requires the confluence of a number of factors, including a hostile army.

"No occupation is simple and occupations as a rule are very costly to the occupied people."

I completely agree. But I think you would find it extremely difficult to prove (unless you employ some nationalist crackpot academic who makes up numbers) that the Baltic states' membership in the Soviet Union resulted in any kind of net loss, whether financial or otherwise.

Tallinner

Oh .. the tragedy that just took place in Norway makes all other issues look so insignificant .. but life goes on. I hope it was an isolated case. I pray it was an isolated case.

***

I have to admit that I have no idea why Andris Šķēle decided to dissolve his party. But I guess it is a good sign - one tycoon less on political arena and more room for honest politicians that Latvia needs so much nowadays.

***

Dear Farringdon,

In 2004 majority of Latvian Russians were Latvian citzens http://www.mfa.gov.lv/en/policy/4641/4642/Muznieks/

I believe the share of Latvian citizens among the population should now be higher than in 2004. Please refer to your source claiming that a third of Latvian population is forcibly excluded from the political debate. Does it mean that during the last 7 years lots of Latvians gave up their citizenship? It is most unfortunate if that happened, but it is so difficult to believe that people are giving up their citizenship so easily. Even when there is deep recession in the country.

Yes, Farringdon, Earth is round, people have walked on the Moon and Latvia was occupied and annexed by the Soviets during the WW2. At least most people think so. Some people choose to disagree. It is their privilege.

Yes, some Latvians collaborated with Nazis. It cannot be denied. Some Latvians collaborated with Soviets. It cannot be denied either. Some Latvians were mobilized to the Soviet Army and some Latvians were mobilized to the Nazi Army. It was not unusual that one brother was mobilized by Russians and the other one by Germans. You cannot blame regular soldiers. You can only blame war criminals, like those, who killed innocent civilians. I do not exactly know how things are in Latvia, but Estonian WW2 veterans do not hate each other. They never did. Alright, there are some exceptions, but most of them understand that they we just used as pawns in a conflict between two dictators.

As a current UK resident you should know that Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia were allies during the first two years of WW2. They even held common military parades http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKo-UPB6Yo4

And Russia provided Germany with grain and steel when they waged war against Britain. How dare you to blame Latvians for Nazi collaboration!

***

I agree that Russian minority should be represented in Latvian politics. (I reckon the current Mayor of Riga, Nils Ushakovs is Russian, right?) But please understand that Latvians want to preserve their culture and language. They do not want their Mother Language to disappear just like it is about to disappear in the neighboring Belarus. Just like Finnish language did disappear from Soviet Carelia.

***

I will now sign out from this blog for about a week in order to drive to Viljandi where we have a Festival that is .. among other things .. building trust and friendship between nations http://www.folk.ee/festival/en/viljandi-folk-music-festival

I guess you cannot make it this year .. but you are welcome in 2012. And you will have free beer! I promise ;)

Didomyk

Farringdon wrote: " I, for one do not consider the question of Soviet occupation (if, indeed, such a thing ever took place) a simple one."

No occupation is simple and occupations as a rule are very costly to the occupied people. But your problem continues to be your refusal to accept historic facts including the Hitler-Stalin pact and the related secret protocol of Sept. 1939. I have already pointed out to you before under a different topic that territorial occupations, as a direct consequence of this infamous alliance, are a historic documented fact. For you to continue questioning these facts looks like another attempt to play your childish game again and again.

Farringdon

I think P_P's comment warrants a proper response.

First, you will find that many EU member states have socialist parties which are very much part of the political mainstream. I agree with the author's classification. There is nothing radical about a bunch of traditionalist people of late middle age politely suggesting that a country where pensioners regularly commit suicide in order to escape the humiliation of extreme poverty was not worth the trouble of the barricades of 1991.

Secondly, I think the historical facts to which you refer are only ever "simple" if you forcibly exclude a third of the country's population from participating in the political debate by depriving them of nationality and subjecting them to unannounced language inspections. I, for one do not consider the question of Soviet occupation (if, indeed, such a thing ever took place) a simple one. Nor do I consider the question of Kononov's conviction simple or that he was in fact a war criminal. One would have thought that with our extensive record of collaborationism during WW2 and the bizzarre annual SS celebrations, we would prefer not to draw attention to ourselves further by prosecuting those who rid Europe of fascism. Apparently not.

I think that a certain segment of the ethnic Latvian community had usurped the debate on these questions since the independence by using force and harassment against the Russian minority. Our collective view of history has been skewed, including by hardline ethnic Latvians from abroad (with little first-hand experience of Latvia's problems) who seemed to be given prominent political offices immediately upon landing at Riga airport. In my view, any Latvian (in the broadest sense, whether Latvian or Russian) should welcome a broader political field and particularly greater Russian representation in politics. Latvia cannot function normally without enfranchising all its residents.

P_P

1. All things considered, it's still a good quality post :)

2. However... "Harmony" sill remains a block of parties, party alliance - even after some of the constituent parties merged.

3. I do realize the difficulty in assigning single descriptive label and the need to differentiate somehow, but exactly what is "moderate" about communist or even stalinist old and young Latvian Socialist(ic) party - one of the constituents of Harmony Centre? Hawking Stalin postcards at Great Anti-Imperialist Youth Bazaar?

Or the "difficulty" in dealing with what's now widely accepted as simple historical facts, ranging from evading questions, to equivocation and duplicity, to justifying and rationalizing Soviet occupation outright, or professing admiration for convicted war criminal like Kononov - all of which, despite there obviously being very different people in the alliance, to this day can be put not just to single constituent party but to Harmony Center as an organisation?

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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