Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Belarus's young dissidents

Home and away

Jul 13th 2011, 16:18 by J.M. | VILNIUS AND WARSAW

BEFORE Belarus's police crashed Independence Day protests on July 3rd and arrested nearly 400 people, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the country's authoritarian president, gave a speech blaming the previous weeks of hand-clapping unrest on shadowy forces operating from “the capitals of other countries”. Dressed in full military uniform, his young son Kolya a pint-sized replica at his side, Mr Lukashenka boomed that their aim was “to put us on our knees and to bring all the achievements of our independence down to zero”. “This", he added, "is not going to happen!”

But the real culprits are fresh-faced twentysomethings armed with laptops and grievances. Viachaslau Dziyanau may be the arch-villain. Soon after Mr Lukashenka's goons cracked down on protesters following a stolen presidential election in December, the 24-year-old activist fled the country, winding up in Krakow, Poland. There, he devoted his attention to an online protest group he founded in 2009 on vkontakte, a popular Russian social-networking website. The group now boasts more than 215,000 members.

With Belarus's opposition leaders cowed or still in jail, and an ever-deepening economic crisis, scores of rowdy young Belarusians have been gathering in Oktyabr Square, in the capital, Minsk, every Wednesday for hand-clapping rallies. The planners reasoned that if they weren't chanting slogans or bearing posters, the authorities would have no excuse to move against them.

For a couple of weeks it worked out that way. But Mr Lukashenka is now making good on his vows to “whack” the protesters. Last Wednesday, police deployed tear gas and batons at rallies and at least 250 people were arrested around the country. Some were beaten by skinhead types in tracksuits; others were thrown in prison on "hooliganism" charges. 

Pessimists point out that that for all its resilience, the movement remains limited and has largely failed to attract support from the traditionally loyal working classes. The irony is that reckless economic policies aimed at keeping up public-sector wages are what kicked the economic crisis into overdrive, resulting in runaway inflation that has cramped foreign imports and domestic purchasing power.

New restrictions designed to curb the black market have made things worse. Increasingly, the young aren’t the only ones who are upset. Last month, angry motorists held separate protests against rising petrol prices, and later, rules that limit trips across the border with Poland.

Kyrill Atamanchyk, another activist, who decamped for Lithuania several years ago, believes that if the youth-driven protests in Minsk can hold out until the end of the summer, they may get a second wind from the working classes worried over the cost of fuel and basic foodstuffs. Mr Atamanchyk studies at the European Humanities University, a university in exile that reopened in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, in 2005 after the authorities in Minsk shut it down.

Two-thirds of the university's students live inside Belarus, crossing the border just twice a year for exams. Mr Atamanchyk says that a few dozen of them have been rounded up for taking part in the protests, and says he would be happy to join the demonstrations if he weren’t on a blacklist. Instead he helps from Vilnius, staging protest events and fundraisers.  

The same goes for Antos Cialezhnikau, a prominent young Belarusian activist I met recently in Warsaw. A computer programmer by day who looks the part, he says his organization, Zubr, has a vast network of members working at the forefront of the pro-democracy movement in Belarus and abroad. No matter where the various groups are based, he says, every dissident from Krakow to Kiev is virtually connected thanks to social media. Such networks, he says, are also useful to foreign journalists seeking trustworthy contacts in his homeland, which is swarming with security agents.

We were joined by his friend Dmitry Borodko, the campaign manager for Mr Lukashenka’s main rival, Andrei Sannikov, who is now serving a five-year prison sentence. Mr Borodko had recently managed to escape to Poland with his family, and plans to continue agitating from beyond the border. Although we were drinking black coffee, the pair raised their mugs and joked about a new toast that has gained currency among the anti-Lukashenka crowd: “Shos”, which translates loosely as: “Let him [Lukashenka] croak.” 

Readers' comments

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trilirium

@shaun39:

"For ordinary Belorussians though, the direction of aspiration is obvious. They want the prosperity and freedom of Western Europeans - and Europeans have the moral duty to support soft liberation, through removal of barriers to migration and trade, with generous targeted apprenticeships, scholarships, language and transfer classes."

I'm afraid, you're missing the obvious point: there's a very little of "prosperity and freedom" ordinary belorussians can get in Europe. The living standarts for natives and for emigrants are obviously very different there. Immigrants from Eastern Europe are commonly treated as kind of "poor relatives" (in the best case), or just as a slaves (in worst).

For Russia situation is different. No visa/other legal problems, same language, same culture, almost same country -- Russia have everything to make belorussians feel at home.

xrocker

..first and foremost is for Belarussians to take the action, and I understand they, albeit too few, do what they can for now. The majority enjoys safe state jobs, as you said.
EU had never done anything concrete in the past for anybody (remember wars in Yugoslavia?) - do not expect it will be any different in your case either - especially given the sorry state of the EU. Former communist states didn't desintegrate because their population had the doors to EU widely open to flee. They just fled en masse and forced some reaction. In re the state aparatus: was, maybe, the one in Romania less brutal than the current one in Belarus? or the one in Syria? So stop bemoaning the lack of helping hand.

Szebasyian

I'm glad that we in Poland are helping our Belarusian brothers and sisters. However, I think more can be done. A previous commenter was right, we (not only Poles) should do more. We should open our borders to young Belarusians looking for work and a proper education.

jouris

Mr Lukashenka boomed that their aim was “to put us on our knees and to bring all the achievements of our independence down to zero”. “This", he added, "is not going to happen!”

That makes a great deal of sense. Once you consider that the only "achievement" of Belarus' independence was putting him in power. Obviously he would be unenthused to see that undone. Perhaps he should look to Libya or Syria and see his future.

guest-ijwmemi

What is wrong with a little dissent? I would argue that as more ideas are brought to the Eastern European table we can pick from the options that best suit each countries need and work from there. Will the government crack down? Probably. But pain is temporary and pride is permanent and ideas that could potentially benefit all. This is one country I would like to visit as it reportedly has a high unemployment rate which I find could be useful in say, some of the Western democracies that struggle with unemployment such as the US of A at around 9%, myself included.

shaun39

Of course, that would be a "realistic" time frame if the opening were to happen now.

Unfortunately, Poland (as greatmongo remarked) and Lithuania are the only two EU countries that are in any sense welcoming; there is no general political movement (as far as I am aware) which really cares about improving the situation in Belarus.

European governments sadly have many much higher priorities - there is no Belorussian lobby group or voting block.

In that sense then, any talk of progress is unrealistic.

I'd love to hear any views on the situation of Belarus or prospects of exerting influence on European government: shaundaley39 at yahoo.co.uk.

shaun39

xrocker, I call bullshit. Young Belorussians aren't apathetic or fatalistic. There have been annual mass demonstrations in Minsk for years. There is a large underground media, extensive. And that is despite enormous personal risks - the Belorussian KGB is brutal, and many thousands of people vanish every year. The universities and technical institutions, seen by the regime as hotbeds of political resistance, are deeply and extensively infiltrated with KGB informants.

Young Belorussian people want better both for themselves and for their country - and hundreds of thousands are ready to take great sacrifice towards that end.

Yet they are powerless. The regime commands absolute authority, maintained through media control, ruthlessly efficient secret police, and mass employment by the state (nobody likes to piss off the boss); for most people, there isn't the sense of urgency, or that change is really attainable.

Belarus's problems are many, and can't be solved quickly by any simple changes. Yet opening western Europe will drain the regime of the talent needed to maintain its grip. Creating individual connections between people in the EU and those in Belarus will undermine censorship of the Belorussian press. Cross-border payments from family in western Europe will increasingly be the main source of income, rather than government employment.

And if the flows of people become large (economically destabilizing), despite Lukashenko's best efforts and orders, the regime will begin to look weak, fallible, and on inevitable route to collapse - just as in East Germany. Then - and only then - are the security forces likely to side with the people, and permit an overthrow of the regime. Then, and only then, will there be clear prospects for human freedom and economic development in Belarus.

If we can help - so cheaply - then we should.

xrocker

So, the problem in Belarus would go away if the EU just let the Belarusians in??? Don't you think this is far too simplistic and what time frame we are talking about? Belarusians may want the higher living standards but so far it seems the majority of them is not willing to do much themselves to bring about the necessary change.

shaun39

trilirium, it shouldn't be a competition.

I'm completely in favor of integrating Russia with the European Union, raising Russian living standards to European levels, and bringing liberty, democracy, rule of law and the end of corruption in Russia.

That's not easy to accomplish.

Certainly, whether Belarus is run by the present Russian oligarchy, or is instead integrated into Europe, is not an issue which affects ordinary Russians. It isn't a matter for pride, nationalism or bold assertions.

For ordinary Belorussians though, the direction of aspiration is obvious. They want the prosperity and freedom of Western Europeans - and Europeans have the moral duty to support soft liberation, through removal of barriers to migration and trade, with generous targeted apprenticeships, scholarships, language and transfer classes.

greatmongo

It is happening in Poland.

Every student that was a part of the protest and had to leave his university because of that is given not only a place at the polish counter part but also a scholarship ( a very modest one I admit)

I think this is the right approach...

The problem in the EU is that Poles care little about Libya and Italians about Belarus...

shaun39

The entire EU should unilaterally open borders to Belorussians, offer right to work to all Belorussians, and should offer Belorussians the right to attend European universities and colleges on the same terms as domestic students.

Let's free Belarus the way West Germany rescued East Germany - with a mass exodus, and by building an educated diaspora to rebuild the country. It's a whole lot cheaper than Ireland or Greece - and the Belorussian people need and deserve it more.

Not only do we rescue 10 million people from the last repressive & authoritarian regime in Europe - we also build the foundation for greater prosperity and security for all of Europe.

Come on - act now, before Lukashenko or his successors take a turn in North Korea's direction.

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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