Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Demonstrations in Azerbaijan

Blocked in Baku

May 3rd 2011, 16:11 by G.E. | TBILISI

THE pattern has become wearingly familiar. Doughty pro-democracy activists take to the streets of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The police move in, break up the crowds and arrest some of the demonstrators. Some organisers receive jail sentences; the relatives of others, who choose to agitate in safety from outside the country, lose their jobs. As last week’s police raid on the opposition Musavat party suggests, the government is desperate to prevent the Arab spring from spreading to Azerbaijan.

The regime has form here. Between 2003 and 2005, "colour" revolutions ushered in new governments in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Seen from Baku, the lesson was clear: nip demonstrations in the bud. Protestors paid the price: one young activist was handed seven years in prison; another was given five. As the International Crisis Group argued [PDF] last year, this is part of a broader strategy to crush dissent and maintain control.

Take media freedom. April 20th marked the fourth anniversary of the conviction of Eynulla Fatuyallev, a journalist, on a range of trumped-up charges. A year ago the European Court of Human Rights ordered the Azerbaijani government to release him. But the authorities have ignored that ruling, part of a broader climate of intimidation that causes journalists to censor themselves rather than invoke the government’s wrath.

On a political level, too, the government has consolidated its position in recent years. Reforms in June 2010 reduced the parliament to a rubber-stamp for the executive. In March 2009, the authorities won a hastily organised referendum proposing the abolition of presidential term limits. The incumbent, 49-year-old Ilham Aliev, is likely to win the election next year. He could stay in power for decades.

Foreign pressure can make a difference. International pressure forced the release late last year of two young activists convicted on trumped-up charges. But by and large, the international response to Baku's clampdowns has been toothless. The Council of Europe has failed to match its words with sanctions. With bigger issues at stake, such as energy supply to Europe, transit routes for US troops in Afghanistan and resolution of the dispute with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, diplomats pull their punches.

Are the demonstrators doomed to fail? Azerbaijanis have gained a lot under Mr Aliev’s regime. Huge oil revenues have led to a flurry of infrastructure and reconstruction projects. Social-welfare payments trebled between 2006 and 2010. Living standards, by the World Bank’s assessment, have improved considerably. The president enjoys high approval ratings, and not only in government-sponsored polls.

Yet the president has appeared sufficiently rattled by uprisings elsewhere to launch a public relations counter-offensive. He has stepped up television appearances, and announced a flurry of new initiatives, including a high-profile anti-corruption drive.

Azerbaijan is ranked 134 in Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, tied with such luminaries as Zimbabwe. Corruption and patronage dominate public life. Some critics have dismissed the government’s efforts as window-dressing. But others have been surprised at the success of measures designed to prevent traffic police and customs officials from taking bribes.

The country faces another problem. Oil revenues account for 55% of GDP, but they will not last forever. Production has already peaked, according to some estimates, and reserves may run out as early as 2028. The non-oil sector needs much more attention. The government will struggle to maintain the largesse to which the public has grown accustomed.

A recent report from the European Stability Initiative strikes a cautiously optimistic note. A new generation of foreign-educated leaders is behind the recent wave of demonstrations. They expect more from their leaders than handouts and stability. As elsewhere, social media enable them to reach fellow citizens (although few outside of Baku are online).

Azerbaijan is unlikely to follow the examples of Egypt and Tunisia, just as it failed to replicate those of Georgia and Ukraine. A better comparison, the ESI suggests, may be with eastern European countries in the 1970s. As described by Timothy Garton Ash, they were like a frozen lake: unmoving on top, but full of activity beneath the surface.

For now, President Aliev and his cronies derive too many benefits to enact the kind of radical reform the country needs. But they cannot carry on like this forever.

Readers' comments

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True Story

A.London, even though most of what you say is true, some criticism need to be tolerated. All of the things that article talks about can not be ignored. Because most of them hold the truth, of course the question of 'why doesn't the media or EC put any pressure on armenian forces to withdraw?' remains. But I am thankful to the Economist to have started an earlier article with this sentence
'COULD Azerbaijan and Armenia be on the verge of renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan conquered and occupied by Armenia in 1994?' (http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2011/03/nagorno-karabak...)
So there's no discussion about whether Karabakh was occupied by Armenian forces or not, whether Khojali massacre happened or not, whether around one million population are refugees or not, whether there's 4 UN resolutions demanding immediate release of the Armenian forces, whether there's Council of Europe resolution approving the Armenian occupation or not.. this list can go on and on...But that's another discussion.
If some media sincerely criticizes undemocratic activities in a country I think it is better to take it into consideration and use this opportunity to look at mistakes. Because no country is justified of wrongdoings and mistakes.

A. London

You may say whatever you want. The fact remains a fact! Karabakh has been occupied, no one invited Armenian troops to those lands. Ethnic cleansing happened due to Armenian occupation. If there was no occupation, Armenians and Azeris would still be living where they used to live. Instead of blaming the Armenian occupation you are blaming the Azeri government of propaganda? Give me a break! Everyone wants the improvement of democracy, no doubt about that. But most of all, everyone wants to have the basic right, to be able to return to their homes. And I wish that day to come very soon because this is the foundation for true democracy for the region!

va21

I agree - there's no justification for illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing. The problem is - if you are alluding to Karabakh - it's neither "occupation" (by the same token Kosovo is occupied by Albanians), not "ethnic cleansing". In a perfect world all refugees would return to their homes - including BOTH SIDES of the conflict (in a more perfect World the lands cleansed of Armenians in today's Eastern Turkey or Nakhichevan would be returned to Armenians as well). But we do not live in a perfect world, and the war mongering and unprecedented propaganda unleashed by Azeri government makes it even more... imperfect (and - mind you - less probable that any return would happen).

This article is about the lack of democracy and corruption in Azerbaijan (and not about a couple of bloggers), and Karabakh conflict has nothing to do with that ugly truth.

A. London

Where have I written that all of Azerbaijan's troubles stem from this conflict? Don't twist my words please. The point I was trying to make is that while the Economist writes about the rights of few bloggers, etc. let them not forget the plight of hundreds of thousands of people who were expelled from their homes. No need to bring up a discussion about the exact number of displaced people and refugees. My point is clear. There is no justification for illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing! I hope you agree with me this time at least.

va21

It's funny - A. London's remarks is a direct confirmation of an earlier point - the Karabakh issue is brought up as soon as one criticizes the Azeri government. A great example how deep the government managed to seed the idea that all troubles of Azerbaijan are stemming from this unresolved conflict.

Some more comments:
- I do not recall The Economist 'attacking' Azerbaijan - perhaps the commenter would care to provide a couple of examples?

- "1 million people return to their homes" is a noble task. Since 1 million number usually quoted when talking about Karabakh conflict - is about *combined* number of refugees from both sides (400K Armenians and 600K Azeris) I assume the commenter meant *all* of them (including 200K Armenians form Baku) to return to their homes. Or?...

- Azerbaijan - despite the huge oil profits - *is* a third-World country - check where it stands according to UNDP, Transparency International and Freedom House data - it's all there... (PLEASE, make an effort and refrain from using Karabakh justification again!)

A. London

May I ask a simple question to the Economist? Why don't you write about the massive demonstrations in Armenia? Why do you always attack Azerbaijan and try to compare it (indirectly) with other under-developed countries? Azerbaijan does have problems with democracy, corruption, etc. But it's not different than other post-Soviet countries. What makes Azerbaijan different is despite all these problems people have much better lives. Azerbaijanis hate when others approach them in a patronizing way. The West talks about the virtue of human rights: then why don't you put pressure on Armenia to withdraw from the occupied regions of Azerbaijan and let 1 million people return to their homes? It seems you care more about some bloggers than simple people. The country has problems but the way you portray the country and ignore the problems in other ones is not simply fair!

lusy

I must admit - I fail to see how modern Azerbaijan is closer to the ex-communist Eastern European countries in 70-ies than to the Arab dictatorships today. Economy-wise (almost nothing produced but oil), mentality-wise (dominating motives of conspiracy theories, insecurity and aggressiveness), even religion-wise (Muslim) today's Azerbaijan has few differences from, say, Libya. In fact, in some ways, it offers a (sadly) "classic" example of a corrupt and despotic government "subsidized" by oil and gas money. It’s no secret that the national wealth has been plundered by a small fraction of population headed by Aliyev clan (see for example http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7051905.ece or http://www.rferl.org/content/Aliyevs_Azerbaijani_Empire_Grows_As_Daughte...). The only way to divert the attention of ordinary Azeris from the corruption of a massive scale is to a) keep a huge security apparatus, b) stifle free media (Freedom House consistently puts Azerbaijan at the bottom of the list of countries by free media - as well as other - criteria), and finally the 'secret weapon' - c) foster and aggravate the image of an external enemy – Armenians – and put the blame of virtually all current problems (a nut going on shooting spree in Baku, forest fires, you name it) of Azerbaijan on them. In cases like this the "pro-Armenia" image is projected on anybody criticizing the government (see recent example http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/4745605.html). In turn, to neutralize the outside critics, Azerbaijan government applies a different set of tools - 'classic' threat of fundamental Islam (autocracy is better than theocracy, apparently), oil & gas lobby ('friends' from BP, Exxon etc. are morale-blind), and, again, the threat of re-starting the war against Karabakh population. So far works like a charm... (except occasional castrated articles like this in the Economist).

Didomyk

Since the 49-year-old president Ilham Aliev could stay in power for decades maybe he should allow a bit more 'freedom of expression' adopting some policies practiced these days in Moscow (as described by Moscow Times):

"Gays crashed a Communist rally, ultranationalists protested migration and the president's Twitter account, the mayor got pelted with eggs, and hipsters rallied for raccoon power during unusually colorful celebrations of the May Day holiday in Moscow."

"Mayor Sergei Sobyanin was targeted with eggs and mayonnaise while addressing the city's biggest rally of 25,000 people gathered in front of City Hall on Tverskaya Ulitsa for a joint event by the ruling United Russia party and trade unions"

"A brief scuffle broke out at the second-biggest rally, staged downtown by the Communist Party, when about 100 gay rights activists unfurled rainbow banners and attempted to join the main crowd of 4,500 people..."

In case you wonder, this is called 'democracy'. Looks like Aliyev could learn something from Medvedev.

New Conservative

I think there's an overlooked side effect to decision by many Arab governments shooting protesters.

It has set the bar of government conduct incredibly low. So other repressive governments can take any action short of bullets to the head and still look reasonable by comparison. The move by many countries to clamp down may look like fear from the outside, but I suspect that a more of it is that the governments of those countries realize that they have a window where they can do anything short of murder to consolidate and increase their own power and the world will look askance but ultimately do nothing more than mutter resignedly, "whatever, at least they haven't killed anyone."

Whether or not your country is on the verge of revolution, it's a chance that's hard to pass up.

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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