Dec 10th 2010, 19:19 by T.J. | BELGRADE

THREE weeks ago I wrote that speculation was rife in Zagreb that Ivo Sanader, a former prime minister of Croatia, was about to be arrested. Now it has happened. Mr Sanader, who fled the country yesterday, was picked up in Austria today.
Around the time my story was published I asked a journalist colleague what the procedure for Mr Sanader's arrest might be. The parliamentary immunity committee could be called in the middle of the night, she explained, strip Mr Sanader of the immunity from arrest he enjoys as an MP, and the police would then nab him. This sounded logical.
In the event it was rather more Keystone Kops. The parliamentary committee was called to meet yesterday. Presumably having been tipped off, Mr Sanader had his daughter drive him to Slovenia. At the border the Croatian police had no choice but to let him go, as no arrest warrant had been issued. So he escaped, perhaps hoping that if he could get to New York he could take up a post as a visiting research fellow at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, a role he was offered [scroll down] a few months ago. Tonight the Croatian press is reporting that he had indeed planned to go to the US, but was arrested, paying a motorway toll near Salzburg.
Mr Sanader stands accused of corruption on a grand scale. According to the Croatian papers, when Mladen Barisic, the former treasurer of Mr Sanader's party, was arrested in September he began to spill the beans, presumably after making a deal with prosecutors. Mr Barisic, who was also the head of Croatian customs, apparently told officials that he had carried bags of cash to the former prime minister. Literally.
This week, courtesy of WikiLeaks, some of the seedy stories that have been circulating for years in Croatia finally made it into the international press. Ian Traynor of the Guardian sums them up excellently here. Here is a sample of what Mladen Bajic, the Croatian chief prosecutor, told US officials in January:
Sanader has possible involvement in several cases, but the one in which prosecutors have gathered the most evidence involves illegal mediation between his friends and Hypo Alpe Adria Bank Group of Austria. The Hypo Bank case indicates that Sanader allegedly arranged a 4m Deutsche Mark loan for his neighbour, Miroslav Kutle, in the 1990s and received an 800,000 DM kickback from Kutle in return.
That is not the half of it. More details are available in a story I wrote for The Economist in September about the complicated Hypo Bank scandal.
One of the frustrations of covering the Balkans is that you can write only a fraction of what you hear. Much of what is now coming out about corruption in the Sanader years was widely known beforehand but not provable. Quite apart from the fact that many rich men from the Balkans retain the services of some extremely expensive lawyers in London, one also has to stay alive.
The Sanader drama will play well in Croatia because few Croats believed that a former prime minister could be apprehended by the law. Too many important people—like Jadranka Kosor, the current prime minister, who served in Mr Sanader's government—would have too much to lose from a candid Sanader testimony. But now it seems that the logic of that argument might have been flawed.
Several final points. Many people make fun of the idea of EU soft power. But Mr Sanader has only been arrested because the EU demanded that Croatia, which hopes to join the union, perhaps in 2012, get serious in tackling corruption.
Second, politicians across the region must be greeting the news from Croatia with a feeling of trepidation. After all, if you can arrest a former Croatian prime minister today, then maybe you can do the same in Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia or Slovenia tomorrow. (A former Kosovar prime minister, Ramush Haradinaj, has already been arrested twice, but in his case the charges concerned war crimes, not corruption.)
Third, a point made by Ines Sabalic, a top Croatian journalist. What is happening in Croatia today has left officials “in terror”. They won't dare accept so much as a coffee now, she laughs. More seriously, until 20 years ago Croatia was not a particularly corrupt place. So perhaps the country is simply returning to normal. Let’s hope all the other post-Yugoslav states can follow.
Finally, the Sanader story is a tragedy. As prime minister, Mr Sanader turned his formerly ultra-nationalist Croatian Democratic Union party (HDZ) into a modern European Christian Democratic-type party. That, in turn, set Croatia on the road to European integration. A man is innocent until proven guilty, of course, but it is beginning to look as if the task may have consumed him.
Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.
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Hello to all, good news is that Sanader and many criminals have been and will be arrested, but bad news is who is standing behind the process for arresting them in Croatia. Many problems and not enough stenght of croatian people especialy intelectuals to stand and fight for the right way.
One of the things that offend me perosnaly when reading comments of the people from so called western world is when I hear people from US, Englend and etc talking about former comunist countries like Croatia is talking about us like we have never seen civilisation, culture, state organisation for what I can tell is like viewing us like the people who live in jungle or different planet.
We have a longer and richer culture than more then half a Europe in Croatia, not to mentioned US or Canada, and i strongly believe that we have bad people who lead us and bad economic and social situacition becouse we have decided to accept western way of life which is full of materilism, consumption, illness, bad food and lack of normal social relations among people.
I strongly believe that many people in Croatia could live their lives very happy if we could move bad people who lead us and do everything what some consultans or bad politicians from the west is telling us is good dor us or our development, but everything form political structures from the west is "friendly suggesting" us is in a service of their own good and for the good of their country in an interest zone for Croatia (same for other states in central and eastern europe). Problem is that we have decided to do everything to live the bad and unhappy way of life of the westerners and we have to suffer a lot in this bad way.
Mishor, are you retarded or what? No need to post three times, it was stupid enough the first time. Don't try to tell me what I think - I never said nor do I think that corruption is OK. I do hope Sanader gets convicted for his crimes. But if you don't understand finer points, than stop discussing them and find a topic more suitable to your mental state. End of discussion.
@Jerko - you completely missed my point. For you, corruption is OK as you are trying to point your finger towards the West. Instead, I expect from you to ask for exemplary punnishment of Sanader and full commitment of the Croatian state to the Laws of the Land if not the Laws of God.
@Jerko - you completely missed my point. For you, corruption is OK as you are trying to point your finger towards the West. Instead, I expect from you to ask for exemplary punnishment of Sanader and full commitment of the Croatian state to the Laws of the Land if not the Laws of God.
@Mishor - you completely missed my point. Where did I say that corruption is OK? Of course it is not.
I was just noting that sometimes it is taken for granted that Eastern European are corrupt and are being lectured by the EU from high moral grounds as if this never happens there.
Jerko: "Sure, new countries of Eastern Europe still have weak institutions and it is easier for corruption to spread, but hey... Bettino Craxi, Alain Juppe are just two examples of former PMs sentenced for corruption. US impeached Nixon. The phenomenon is not completely attributable to a state being a new democracy."
This post is an explicit example of the moral collapse of post-communist societies and an illustration of the mindset that needs urgent change - NO Jerko, corruption is NOT OK! There can be NO comparison with the West.
So, the Americans learn that Sanader is in trouble for corruption and what is their first move? Offer a place at Columbia University!
Having just returned to one of my favourite Economist blogs, I found it having adopted the annoying habit of newspapers in the US: read on... I would hope that your correspondent is familiar with the sometime spotty coverage in the region. Previously, loading the page got me through a ride on the Prague metro easily, now it's waiting for the next stop. Any chance of returning to the previos layout?
Best,
In my opinion it is not good enough to view this story only through the lens of Eastern Europe/Balkans perspective. Sometimes it sounds a bit arrogant and presumptuous as if Western countries don't have high-level corruption at all. Sure, new countries of Eastern Europe still have weak institutions and it is easier for corruption to spread, but hey... Bettino Craxi, Alain Juppe are just two examples of former PMs sentenced for corruption. US impeached Nixon. The phenomenon is not completely attributable to a state being a new democracy.
glad you got some predictions right. remember what you/the Economist said about Facebook? about Dick Fuld? here's a reminder http://bit.ly/cs9tcg
A corrupt system of governance introduced in 1991 is just a culmination of in general bankrupt system of social values in Croatia. Everybody will acknowledge that insane and very often non-scrupulous grab to put their hands on the former communist-state assets or other Croatian citizens by persons in power created a dysfunctional and pathological state of mind where everything is OK (murders, bribes, perjury, arson, theft, blackmail, forgery). I would live to believe, but I do not know why only one ex-premier sentenced to jail for life can change it? This scandal is not even the top of the iceberg, it is the tiny drop in the sea of crimes made in the name of new independent Croatian state.
He's version is well known in Croatia: he did nothing wrong by running the country as his own posession and never felt a need to explain how he amassed the personal wealth over the short 10 yrs....by being stripped of immunity from the arrest he now will have a chance to refute the testimony of his sometime closest collaborators.
"More seriously, until 20 years ago Croatia was not a particularly corrupt place. So perhaps the country is simply returning to normal. Let’s hope all the other post-Yugoslav states can follow."
Are you kidding???
Where did you get this from? Probably not from anyone who lived in Croatia more than 20 years ago!
It will be look more European like if the Parliamentary committee will heard also Mr. Sanader version before making a decision and will take more than few hours before making a decision. Their job is to remove any doubt of a political persecution before clearing the way for prosecution.
Well, I can not see anything tragic in this event.
@ Ruben_NYC: what you wrote is sheer nonsense. The top HDZ party officials potentially have more to lose by Sanader court proceedings and revelations on how he run his party.
' As prime minister, Mr Sanader turned his formerly ultra-nationalist Croatian Democratic Union party (HDZ) into a modern European Christian Democratic-type party.'
Can this be true????
I must disagree with a concept that Sanader was arrested because of EU pressures - it was important, but inner struggles in Sanaders party also played a role, as well as the fact that he is really involved in a plethora of illegal activities that happened in the decade he was prime minister. Also, very important, is the fact that after the crisis hit, all the practises couldnt be hid anymore. And maybe, just maybe croatian institutions are starting to do their job and treat everyone equally
Sanader was accepted at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, and he was starting his activities there.
The way he was arrested was due to the fact that Croatian Government and state administration is still full of his men, or men who are very afraid of his testimony.
After he resigned as prime minister, we had no new free elections, therefore we have "his" Govt. in power, still. That is most disturbing fact in this situation.
To bad Canada still hasn't the guts to arrest a former prime minister for corruption!