East European emigres in America

TO MATTER in Washington, you need three things: money, votes and ideas. In theory, if the idea is good enough, you will get the votes and then the money. In practice, a lot of money can get votes for really bad ideas. America’s allies in ex-communist Europe have been used to a pleasant combination of votes, money and winning ideas. Not any more.

The problem is partly generational. Americans who hyphenate with Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish, Ukrainian, Czech, Slovak, Hungarian, Croatian, Serb or other identities are moving on, physically and psychologically. The surviving émigré newspapers carry death notices, not birth announcements. Language skills are declining, so is participation in scouting and folk-dancing, even church attendance. Fundraising is down. Assimilation has done its work, and the new post-Soviet arrivals lack the burning sense of loss and longing (“in their freedom they have no homeland, and in their homeland they have no freedom”) that sustained previous cohorts.

The sense of urgency has gone. Once, it made sense to spend time and money to stop the west going squishy on communism or opening the doors to NATO. For millions of voters in Chicago, Cleveland and elsewhere, a politician’s stance on the “captive nations” was a decisive factor in their electability.

The Armenian diaspora still remains a mighty force. As I write, they are organising the roasting of the American ambassador-designate to Baku, Matt Bryza, at his confirmation hearing in the Senate. This is not the place to discuss his case or prospects. But in my experience even the most conscientious and fair-minded officials shudder at the words “Armenian lobby”.

Having a diaspora is not a clincher. Georgia’s émigré community in America is tiny, but it has clout because a large chunk of the foreign-policy establishment has a soft spot for the hope which that country represents of stability and prosperity (and Atlanticism) in the Caucasus. Similarly, the Azeri lobby is numerically tiny. But Azerbaijan’s role as an oil exporter, and in the future as a transit country for gas, gives it a fair amount of influence.

The old colours are faded, but the wind still moves them. Captive Nations Week (the third full week in July) was, as usual, marked by a White House proclamation (apparently after a bit of reminding). The bizarre decision to erect a bust of Stalin at the national D-Day memorial in Virginia has given the émigré communities a good bone to chew on. The statue is pleasingly indefensible and its defenders incoherent and obnoxious. Americans, like many westerners, tend to forget that Europe’s wartime history is more complicated than Hollywood and school textbooks would suggest. The State Department made a point of marking the 70th anniversary of the Sumner Welles non-recognition policy of the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states.

Yet on Capitol Hill, the numbers are slipping. Some of the great allies, such as Senator GEORGE Voinovich of Ohio, are stepping down. John McCain, the region’s staunchest friend, is in trouble in the Arizona primary. The new Republicans come from a background that is suspicious of allies and foreign entanglements: few Democratic senators or House members want to wrangle with the administration on peripheral issues of foreign policy.

The bleak fact is that the historical sinews that once tied America to Europe are withering. The Normandy beaches, the Berlin airlift, the fall of communism in 1989, the siege of Sarajevo and other events are mere history, not grounds for action. Eastern Europe risks ending up without money, votes or ideas. Meanwhile, the Russia lobby is on the up. That could get messy.

PS An earlier version of this had Sen Voinovich's first name wrong. Apologies