Ex-communist Europe
Elections in Bulgaria
Bulgarians say: more of the same, please
Oct 24th 2011, 17:34 by T.E.
WITH most of the votes counted, it is clear that voters in Bulgaria’s local and presidential elections have given a thumbs-up to the status quo.
Rosen Plevneliev, the candidate of Boyko Borisov, the prime minister, did not get the majority of votes he needed to win the presidency outright yesterday and will face his Socialist rival, Ivailo Kalfin, in a run-off next Sunday. But his first-round score of 40% should be enough to see him through.
Strikingly, in both the presidential and the local polls, Mr Borisov’s party, Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) was able to hang on to almost the same share of the vote it received in the last general election, two years ago. This is despite Bulgaria's increasingly dismal economic outlook and an election campaign that was punctuated with some nasty episodes of racially charged rioting.
In fact, most of the major voting blocs had good news to report. Mr Kalfin's 30% score yesterday, although it is unlikely to win him the presidency, is a major improvement on the Socialists’ performance in the last parliamentary elections. And Meglena Kuneva, Bulgaria’s European commissioner in Brussels, exceeded all expectations, winning 14% of the vote on a technocratic, liberal ticket.
Happily, that suggests that even if voters are dissatisfied, they do not believe the answer lies with the far right. Volen Siderov, presidential candidate for Ataka, the anti-Roma party that hoped to do well out of last month’s rioting, won less than 4% yesterday. The ethnic-Turkish party Votes for Rights and Freedoms also underperformed, with much of its base choosing to stay at home after a series of rows within the party.
“The extremists weren’t able to capitalise on the anger resulting from the weak economy and the rioting," says Kiril Avramov, a political analyst. He predicts Ms Kuneva’s unexpected success will lead to the emergence of a new, centrist project in Bulgarian politics.
The result reinforces Mr Borisov’s mandate for the next two years. Without the threat of a presidential veto, Bulgaria’s strongman prime minister is free to pursue his plans to improve Bulgaria’s creaking transport infrastructure and pursue an eye-catching anti-corruption agenda.
It won’t be easy. As the riots showed, road-building programmes mean little when unemployment is on the rise and slow growth threatens to turn into recession. And, as widespread allegations of vote-buying in these elections show, there is much to be done on corruption too.
Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.
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On Sunday /30.10.2011/, the Most of bulgarians /will/ are goint to vote for Plevneriev ... :) the others aren't more :)
Dear Economist
It probably takes less than 1 hr to inform yourself about the situation in Bulgaria - this article shows that you haven't. Rarely have I read such a superfluous writ about presidential elections. There is not even a hint of the massive ethical vote that will go to Mr Kalfin in the runoff (yes, ironically the Turkish party has allied itself with the socialists that were changing their names in the 1980s, even from the Turkish graves). This is not a major improvement in the Socialists' score - still only Turkish people vote for them on command, plus pensioners and people priviledged from the "party".
Fortunately, GERB is going to win and hopefully put an end to the so-called Bulgarian Socialist Party (there aint nothing socialist about them, they introduced flat tax at 10%!)
Plenty of inconsistencies in such a brief article. This is in line with some DJ newswires that came out these days.
As fellow commenters elaborated, Bulgaria retains steady macro-economic and financial indicators - everything is relative, as the French say, however (as the British say) compared to the dramatic headlines coming from the "West", it is well arguable Bulgaria is indeed in a fairly decent macroeconomic position.
Regarding the "underperformance" of the ethic Turkish party, well, they have not performed yet! They have not issued their own candidate for the presidency, and are playing the shrewd game of holding on to their cards. Observers reckon if they support Mr. Kalfin (with whos party they were in coalition the previous government), then Mr. Plevenliev's victory is likely, but less so.
The blogers can write many comments, but it is fact - Bulgarians want STABLE country. The Bulgarians protested before. Now it is time for working!
Economist: " nasty episodes of racially charged rioting".
TE shoul know better: Gypsies are of the same race as Bulgarians. So who's racist here?
Well, liberal Lefties, as usual!
Dear Economist, it would have been a good idea to do some more serious investigations into a country's domestic affairs before writing crap.
Bulgaria's choice is either "more of the same (reforms), please", or "back to total corruption and despair". This is why the young and the better educated voted "for more of the same, please", while the elderly and undereducated voted against. The reforms and their pace could have been more radical, though.
"Bulgarian citizen" there is no relation between the decrease of the FDI in the last two years and the economic growth and stability in the country.
Additionally, if you want to see why the FDI decreased then take a look on the global trend in the last three years, as well as, analyze the structure of the FDIs in Bulgaria in the period 2002-2007. Then you will see that:
1) FDIs decreased worldwide (probably except in South-Eastern Asia)
2) The so high investment in Bulgaria during the 2000-2007 were highly influenced by investment in real-estate and financials institutions - both played major part of the financial crisis and we should not be so sorry about them.
The macro economic outlook of Bulgaria might look healthy, but this doesn't mean that the general economic outlook cannot be dismal. The opposite can be true as well. I can think of countries with much better general economic health and sickening macro economic figures.
Dear Editor,
With all my due respect this were the most chaotic and disorganized election since the fall of the Berlin wall in Bulgaria. Major bridge of legislation and procedure were recorder including by OECD. In addition, disadvantaged people and people with disabilities were deprived by their write to vote as the ruling party introduced the rule that at least 10 disable people need to request assistance in a voting section in order to be able to vote !!!
My add ups to the economic discussion. Please do not write on the deficits. It is funded against the organic budget law by the health fund / used 1,2 billions/ . In addition the Government is in bridge of the Swiss rule /adjustment of pension, social security etc.../ according to inflation/ .
On the growth most of the forecast the government presented are incorrect so the budget is endlessly amended and fund that are not part of the state budget used to fill the gaps incl. EC payments. Example. EC farmer payment – customary practice adopted by the current administration is to distribute 50% to the farmers and the other 50 % simply disappear /read fill gaps in state budget/. hidden transaction/. This is achieved by the current legislation that allow any EC subsidies to be stopped if a beneficent decides to go to court. So most of them choice not to.
The economic policies of the Government is so awful that even the World Bank withhold the loans.
The poverty level is compatible to the poor African country so the wonderful statistics need to be used with care. It is a disgrace 35 % people in EU country to live bellow the poverty line on a 1,25 $ a day !!! Thank you Mr. Borisov !!! and Mr. Terziev !!!
cheers
with all my due respect this was the most chaotic and disorganized election since the fall of the Berlin wall in Bulgaria. Major bridge of legislation and procedure were recorder including by OECD. In addition, disadvantaged people and people with disabilities were deprived by their write to vote as the ruling party introduced the rule that at least 10 disable people need to request assistance in a voting section in order to be able to vote !!!
Economic data.The budget was balanced using the health fund / used 1,2 billions/ against the law . In addition the Government is in bridge of the Swiss rule /adjustment of pension, social security etc... according to inflation (CPI)/ .
The forecasts the government presentsed are usually incorrect so the budget is endlessly amended.
EU funds are used to balance the budget too. EC farmer payment – customary practice adopted by the current administration is to distribute 50% to the farmers and the other 50 % simply disappear /read fill gaps in state budget/. hidden transaction/. This is achieved by the current legislation that allow any EC subsidies to be stopped if a beneficent decides to go to court. So most of them choice not to.
The economic policies of the Government is so awful that even the World Bank withhold the loans on the pipeline.
cheers
Mr. Terziev,
Could you tell us by how many percent the FDI (foreign direct investments) dicreased in our country for the last two years, due to the lack of a clear, long-term and transparent governmental strategy for Bulgaria's economic development?
Dear Economist,
You are supposed to be a well informed and objective media.
Unfortunately the above article seems to be written by the current Bulgarian Prime minister. I am a Bulgarian and I have not seen this "eye-catching anti-corruption agenda". What we saw is mass wire-tapping used against political oponents. The Minister of Interior leads the election campaign of GERB and uses all the resources of the Bulgarian police for the purpose of striking fear into voters and winning the elections.
@Nedyalko Terziev
My point is that the economic outlook in Bulgaria may look peachy measured by your pretty numbers, but the down to earth economic reality in the country is dismal indeed. And increasingly so, judging by the numbers of closing small businesses in the last year.
@ggbg
My comment is directed towards the author of the article making a statement that has little factual ground IMHO rather than comparing the wage levels in Bulgaria against those in USA, EU or Zimbabwe. When someone says "INCREASINGLY dismal" the use of the adverb suggests comparison of the current state of affairs against a prior state. I certainly don't think salaries in Bulgaria today are worse today than they were 5, 10 or 15 years ago. In fact, if I have to use this specific word, it would probably be in the increasingly better context as that is what NSI data would suggest.
@Nedyalko Terziev
These are very clever numbers, but unfortunately they don't make up for the 10 times lower average wages in Bulgaria compared to the developed EU countries and the US. The people who live in a country are more important than the country itself.
These elections were by far the worst organized we had in the last 20 years. There were many instances of unfair play. A picture of a deputy of the ruling GERB party, caring a bag of votes is being circulated. The elections in Bulgaria were neither democratic nor legal.
"The Economist", what is your understanding of "dismal economic" outlook? The country is back on the growth way and is in better financial situation than Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and even probably Ireland. Please, check the financial indicators, before making such harsh judgments!
You call the demonstration, which resulted in two days gathering of several hundred (actually, not more than 200-300) people asking for police interaction: "a nasty episodes of racially charged rioting" ?! Wow, in England more people are making racial declaration on a football game, than what happened in Bulgaria. You cannot be serious!
Dear Economist,
I think it is appropriate for a widely-read and highly-respected magazine that The Economist is to factually support the claims that it makes. When you state "Bulgaria's increasingly dismal economic outlook" you should support such a harsh evaluation with hard data. And personally I have difficult time seeing what you mean:
* the budget deficit is fine: under 3% (very good by EU standards)
* very little government debt: <20% of GDP, has not risen during the crisis
* positive GDP growth rate which is commendable in the tough economic state that the world is now
* annual inflation rate that is quite acceptable: 3-4%
* consistently decreasing interest rates for bank loans; consistently improving CDS rates for Bulgaria's debt (especially when compared to other CEE countries); Bulgaria is one of the few countries in the world with improved sovereign debt rating
* unemployement of about 10% which is about the US and EU average
* among the most attractive tax regime in EU which has stayed put during the economic downturn
All this begs the question- what precisely makes Bulgaria's economic outlook "increasingly dismal"???
I stongly disagree on Leahj4's comment, as it depicts only one part of the reality: Although no riots have been reported, the organisation of the two-in-one local and presidential elections was at lowest ever level for the last twenty-two years. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria and the Central Electoral committee refused to settle electoral sections in major cities abroad, i.e. in Frankfurt, which led to thousands of people not being able to cast their votes. Similars problems have been reported all over the country, especially in smaller cities and villages, were poeople had to wait for hours and eventually were refused to vote, as the election day was over. There is a strong breach of transparency regarding the ballot counting, as several bags with bulletins have been reported to be taken out from the Central Electoral Committee premices by MPs from the rulling party GERB, without external supervision, which is in violation of the law.
Nope, this just shows that even if Bulgarians don't want to go to the sh*thole of democracy they voted for the less sh*tstained people though they are still covered in the same feces. Sorry for the repulsive picture but that's just how politics work everywhere especially in Bulgaria.