Democracy in America

American politics

Immigration reform

Make a line

Feb 6th 2012, 22:56 by W.W. | IOWA CITY

I'M GLAD to see the Washington Post's editors make a point I grumpily repeat in almost every live-blog. Low-skill, undocumented immigrants can't "get in line", instead of entering and working in America illegally, because there is no line. As the Post notes, Republicans aren't alone in repeating empty "get in line" rhetoric; the president does it too.

Granted, Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney have different ideas of how the “line” would work... In the end, the distinction is meaningless—because there is no line, not even a relevant visa category, for millions of immigrants.

Here’s why. A large majority of the 11 million illegal immigrants are unskilled or low-skilled Mexicans. Many of them have no relatives over age 18 who are either U.S. citizens or permanent residents in possession of green cards.

That makes them ineligible for any realistic visa category. They are barred in most cases from employment-based visas, which favor skilled and well-educated applicants, and from family-based visas, which require applicants to have spouses, parents or siblings who are U.S. citizens or hold green cards. (Even the “line” for those visas often takes 15 to 20 years or more.) There is simply no immigrant visa category for which most unskilled Mexicans qualify and no realistic prospect they could be legally admitted to the United States. About half of the unauthorized adults in the country are Mexicans who probably have no category for admission, according to Pew Hispanic Center senior demographer Jeffrey S. Passel.

Yet American demand for low-skilled workers remains. So they will come. And they will come illegally, because they must. It's very important to note that workers from south of the border act more as complements than substitutes for similar American workers. Perfect enforcement of the law as it stands would lead to a shortfall in the supply of low-skilled labour and reduce the productivity of sectors that have benefitted from the complementary specialisation of native and migrant workers.

The Post sensibly proposes a guest-worker programme. Short of an EU-style integration of North American labour markets, a large guest-worker programme is the only policy that promises to accommodate economic reality without creating a caste of unauthorised workers especially vulnerable to exploitation. The "rule of law" will prevail only when the law is re-drafted to accord with necessary and natural patterns of migration and trade. Newt Gingrich alone among this season's presidential contenders grasps the necessity of a guest-worker programme. As this isn't a particularly popular stance among conservatives, for this Mr Gingrich deserves some recognition and praise. Perhaps because the idea of a guest-worker programme doesn't exactly thrill most Republicans, Mr Gingrich tends to emphasise that his proposal includes a biometric ID-card system managed by American Express, Visa, or MasterCard. (Why not Diner's Club?) A spoonful of corporatism helps the medicine go down, I guess. At least Mr Gingrich wants to create a line would-be workers can "get in", which is more than can be said for his GOP competitors, or the president.

Readers' comments

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Love2see

There is no line that's exactly what is and the immigration law is so draconian and its nothing but catch22. Though some people made the effort in trying do the right but instead it will be a 3-10 year bars. The US goevernment are becoming so mean that even the people that they are governed have no right to love and to whom they wish to marry. The government are separating USC families. Government has no business or no right to separate families.

guest-ilanans

The policy makers of the countries need to decide what the policy is to prevent "illegality." Unfortunately, the US "pardoned" previous illegal immigrants, when there are many waiting to come in legally. I've met eastern Europeans, who are getting their citizenship in England so they can immigrate to Canada, so they can immigrate to the US-a twenty year process. Let's not reward law-breaking. If we need people then they should be here legally.

My last comment, at least for the US, immigration is a federal policy and implemented partially by the Border Patrol, yet the states are responsible for paying for education and health benefits for illegal immigrants. The federal government should be responsible for reimbursing the states for illegal immigrants-maybe they would do a better job if they had to pay for its policy implementation, or lack thereof.

guest-ilanans

The policy makers of the countries need to decide what the policy is to prevent "illegality." Unfortunately, the US "pardoned" previous illegal immigrants, when there are many waiting to come in legally. I've met eastern Europeans, who are getting their citizenship in England so they can immigrate to Canada, so they can immigrate to the US-a twenty year process. Let's not reward law-breaking. If we need people then they should be here legally.

My last comment, at least for the US, immigration is a federal policy and implemented partially by the Border Patrol, yet the states are responsible for paying for education and health benefits for illegal immigrants. The federal government should be responsible for reimbursing the states for illegal immigrants-maybe they would do a better job if they had to pay for its policy implementation, or lack thereof.

guest-iinsnew

Just read The Daily's article "Everyone Wins: New Immigrants don't take 'Natives' jobs", and I found the snippet at the bottom pretty interesting. The snippet reads: "Will Wilkinson blogs about American politics for The Economist."

A little shameless, circular self-promotion, eh?

Wenteast

We HAVE had (and still do) a guest worker program. The problem is it doesn't work. On paper, and thinking as an American or European, it makes perfect sense: give them visas to come for 6-8 months a year, where they do low-skilled jobs but STILL make far more than in their home countries, they get 4-6 months back home with their families, and then return to the U.S. the next year to do it again. Everyone wins, right? But things like long-term thinking and cost-benefit analysis do not come into play when you're the type of person who would qualify for this program.

Some years back I ran the H2B program in one of our U.S. Embassies in a Central American country. It was, essentially, a Congress-mandated illegal immigration program. When I would issue 100 visas to a company, LITERALLY all 100 workers would disappear the first night in the U.S. Over and over again. Literally thousands did this, but because Congress wanted the program for whatever reasons, we had to keep administering it, and no amount of tinkering, fraud prevention efforts, pre-departure briefings with the applicants -- NOTHING -- made any difference.

24AheadDotCom

"The Post sensibly proposes a guest-worker programme". I don't try to tell the English or Canadians how to run their domestic policy, maybe those who can't spell "program" should consider returning the favor.

There's little or no line because Americans don't want to be flooded by low-skilled labor. That low-skilled labor has several costs that hacks like "WW" will never acknowledge much less arrange to have those he enables pay for.

Americans have, can, and will do those jobs if not for downward pressures caused by the ready supply of illegal labor. That would have huge benefits for the U.S., both in fiscal and in non-fiscal terms. For those jobs that go unfilled, we can invent machines* instead of relying on foreign serf labor.

* As the NYT pointed out several years ago, research into farm machinery was put on the backburner because of the availability of all that illegal labor. The Economist would have us return to the days of buggy whips and horse-drawn plows.

Anderson-2

The idea that illegals are cheating those who would like to immigrate by jumping in front of the line is also a joke. WW makes a very good point here in that for many or most illegals there is no line. But there is also the fact that if you are legal, you can start to build a new life for yourself and any family you might have or acquire. If you aren't legal, you can still do that, but are building on sand, and a stray traffic stop or jaywalking incident can lead to you being deported. This happened to, of all things, a British neighbor of mine. She came legally with her parents when she was two, they went back to Britain when they retired, but had never jumped through the hoops to establish legal residency for their daughter, who had lost her parents and never seen England, when she was arrested at the age of 40, albeit this was for working in one of the largest marijuana farms in the history of Ohio. So she got to go to prison in Ohio, and was then deported to a country she had never known.

attacko

To me one thing all immigrants should be able to use to support their desire for the right to work is money. They often spend large sums paid to someone to get them into the country illegally, and more once they arrive in attempts to get citizenship e.g. a marriage of convenience might cost tens of thousands of dollars to arrange. It is rational for them to spend this money because of the improved earning and lifestyle they can obtain in the US.

If temporary visas were available to those willing to pay a cash sum upfront, and then to keep up further payments over a period of months or years once they arrive, in exchange for the right to legally work, and a clear path to permanent citizenship, then you would have a useful influx to government funds, a way of selecting those workers who truly plan to earn their keep, and a reduction in the problems of exploitation that illegal workers can face. If the worst happened and a worker went undercover to avoid making the payments once they'd arrived, you would only be back to where you'd been anyway if you hadn't charged them a fee to enter.

LexHumana

"There is simply no immigrant visa category for which most unskilled Mexicans qualify and no realistic prospect they could be legally admitted to the United States."

This statement is flatly false. There are several visa categories set up for temporary (non-immigrant) workers who are unskilled:

H-2A visas = Temporary or seasonal agricultural workers.
H-2B visas = Temporary non-agricultural workers.

People focus too much on H-1B visas, which are for workers in specialty occupations. The H-2 visa program already exists for temporary unskilled labor (for example, all the young foreign workers that show up every summer working at hotels and tourism businesses all use the H-2 visa program; all the migrant field workers that are legitimately recruited use the H-2 visa program; etc.).

You can argue whether more such visas should be issued, but it is false to claim that there is no visa categories for unskilled labor, or claim that the U.S. needs a "guest worker" program -- we already have one in place (and its been in place for ages).

Handworn

Wow, something unrelated to the role of government that I agree with Gingrich about. A guest-worker program makes perfect sense to me.

jvictor1789

Illegal or shall we say undocumented immigration is a very minor issue,of very little importance, but because of the straight jacket of political correctness, it is argued about in place of the real issue of real importance that nobody dares to publicly complain about.
There are about 11 million undocumented workers in America.Out of a population of 312 million, we are talking of 0.3% of the people living in the USA as of right now.
Please explain how come 0.3% of the population can generate any significant effect on the lives of the other 99.7%.Unless they were all Ebola virus carriers, the answer is:in no significant way.
But it is not undocumented workers that make many people feel uneasy.It is the fact that Hispanics, most of whom are legal residents, have jumped from being an invisible minority to representing 16% of the total US population just in our lifetime.By comparison,Blacks are 12% and Asians about 4%.And the US Census projections speak of an America were 30% of the people will be Hispanic by 2050, and non-Hispanic whites a minority.Even today, almost half of all children bellow the age of five are minorities.
We have to understand human nature.I believe Ah Beng was speaking of Pasadena.Most LA suburbs were mostly white even in the 1960s and 70s.Now even the Army Surplus store in Pomona is Spanish-speaking,although they will address you in English out of necessity.
Of course many people feel displaced or uneasy.One solution, if you are adventurous and gifted, is to learn Spanish real well and get a few Hispanic girlfriends, the Clint Eastwood way.But many people of average abilities will inevitably feel challenged by not recognizing their neighborhood as the place they grew up in.
This is the real issue that demagogues such as our friend Moon Base Gingrich want to use for political gain, by the subterfuge of attacking a more convenient though in reality almost irrelevant proxy enemy, such as undocumented immigrants, most of whom deserve more pity and less prosecution.

Anderson-2 in reply to jvictor1789

I think this is right on. Illegal immigrants contribute a lot and are a tiny minority, though there are costs and those tend to be concentrated on state and local budgets. I have a hard time getting worked up about the growing Hispanic minority, but can understand why people do and in a Democracy those views, within reason, should be addressed. Immigration policy, and who we allow in is certainly a reasonable political question.

But a lot of the anti-illegal initiatives are designed to intimidate and harass those legally here, and this is wrong.

jvictor1789 in reply to 24AheadDotCom

The only foreign governments with any power over the US(besides Her Majesty´s, and Israel´s which are structural allies) is that of the People´s Republic of China.

The Mexico of today is pretty much an economic colony of the USA.

"IA" or is it "AI"?, "entities"...for a sec I thought you were speaking of robotic invaders from outer space.

Like I said, I fully understand the uneasiness of seeing one´s neighborhood´s demographic and ethnic composition change so radically.

That´s a serious, profound matter we may want to discuss some other day. But for a nation that has the Statue of Liberty as a national symbol to descend into condoning the night hunting of wretched immigrants, in the desert or in front of their just about to be separated families, seems like a mistake to me.

Konker

The US is planning to have 450M citizens by 2050. That's only 38 years for another 140M. It needs to do more to open its borders to hispanics and to expand teaching of Spanish amongst the population. But that won't be enough! To hit the target the US will also need a guest worker program for Chinese workers to come over and some Chinese language courses in schools and Chinese tv channels to help immigrants integrate.

Melissia in reply to Konker

Or perhaps expand teaching English to immigrants?

Make the learning of it a requirement for continued stay in the US?

Yes, I agree that we should have more Americans learn Spanish, but English still remains the more important language in the US, therefor immigrants need to learn it. It's like going to Japan while adamantly refusing to learn Japanese.

chernyshevsky

The experience of Germany tells us that a guest worker program would never work as advertised. Once the gastarbeiters come, they never leave. I'm much more amicable to a legal framework whereby companies can hire workers in foreign countries and bring them into the country to work, but are also responsible for their welfare here and eventual departure.

Then you get the sort of suburban/inner-urban ghettos that foster cultural/religious/social resentment, which in turn may explode in the face of the host nation(s), either through structural exclusion from the labour force and welfare system, or (and sometimes in addition to) through violence in the form of riots and/or terrorism.

That is one possibility, which has materialised in a few European countries. It does not mean that all guest-worker programs must develop that way, just that they may do so.

chernyshevsky in reply to Ah Beng

No, there's a big difference. Within such a framework, the employer would be legally liable for the foreign worker until the worker departs our country--or until the employer reports to immigration authorities that his employee has gone missing. The deterrence to overstaying is a lot higher. The errant worker would be both without legal status and without a job. There's a strong incentive to take the plane/bus ticket offered by the employer and return home.

Ah Beng in reply to chernyshevsky

Such a scheme would only work if there was very active enforcement of deportation schemes on violators, or the companies were held liable. If the former, even the Obama administration's current round of deportations wouldn't be enough to present a sufficient deterrent. If the latter, well, let's just say private security goons have far fewer qualms about rights abuses than government law enforcement.

chernyshevsky in reply to Ah Beng

You completely fail to appreciate the stupidity of the present system. THERE IS NO POINT IN DEPORTING PEOPLE ENGAGING IN ECONOMICALLY BENEFICIAL ACTIVITIES. Workplace raids are counterproductive. If they work, they are okay. If they don't, then say hello to Mexico. Legal status should be linked explicitly with employment status. Removal of illegals would be far easier when doing so means you're removing them a situation where they have no means of livelihood than where you're taking away their means of livelihood.

Ah Beng in reply to chernyshevsky

No need to scream. I agree with you, the current system is stupid, I really just don't see how your system would work any better.

OK, so someone's employment is up and he skips town rather than take the ticket to Mexico, meets up with his friends or relatives in another state, and gets another job there from someone who has no qualms taking in an undocumented migrant, just as an illegal immigrant in the US might get these days. Now what?

chernyshevsky in reply to Ah Beng

But why would this person's employment be "up"? Either he is productive or he is not. If not, then he needs to get out. Whoever hired him in the first place should be responsible for that. If someone else willingly choose to hire an illegal, then this he picks up the liability.

typingmonkey

While it would be pleasant if WW and other liberal commentators were right about this, I think they are not acknowledging the entire scenario. We know America has 11 million illegal immigrants who collectively perform a great deal of labor in a few categories where English is not a critical skill. But we also have high and increasingly structural unemployment in the legal labor market, particularly for white and black males in separate but similarly low-skill categories. But by definition, low-skill jobs are precisely the sort which present the lowest technical barrier to substitution of labor. An unemployed forklift operator can learn to proficiently operate a leaf-blower in about half a day. So when I see WW write that illegals "act more as complements than substitutes for similar American workers" I hear what sounds like cognitive dissonance.

In fact, inelasticity between these labor markets has structural components like geography. The former forklift operator might live in Ohio, and the leafy suburb could be Pasadena. But I think we all understand that other barriers are at play here, and few barriers are as difficult for academics or economists to describe as cultural and racial ones. And indeed, the rest of the truth is on display in America every day.

Outside my office window at this very moment is a middle-aged white man with a job. He is waving a sign for a tax preparation service, which might pay him $10/hr for a couple months. The leaf blowers have already left. Their pay is probably about the same, and their race is as predictable as yesterday's weather. Everyone in America, including WW and his academic know that this white man is underemployed and likely to remain so for the rest of his career. They also know that he is physically capable of operating that leaf blower, getting a more dependable paycheck, and taking a more complete role in the community and nation. Some of the barriers to this "substitution" are cultural and psychological. Latinos have come to dominate certain specific jobs to such a degree that the lingua franca in commercial kitchens, vinyards, and gardening trucks is now Spanish. We know that only Latinos have done this hard work for generations, and white and black Americans have become historically, psychologically and linguistically excluded.

I think America benefits from cultural infusions and immigration at both ends of the labor force, and I would never call for deportation of 11 million illegal immigrants. But lets be honest here. Labor segments are racially segregated, and trends in our nation's employment profile will put those divisions under scrutiny and pressure.

We can no longer accept the notion that "Americans don't want that kind of work". It insults everyone, white, black, and Latino. And optimal solutions will not be found if we don't acknowledge and deal with this. No artificial barriers should exist in labor markets, especially racial ones.

Ah Beng in reply to typingmonkey

I can offer anecdotal evidence to support these assertions. My brother currently works as a line cook to support his education, and the lingua franca of the restaurant he works - and virtually all of the service staff in the area - is Spanish.

That being said, I think that geographic factors matter more than you think. I also think that part of the cultural problem is intrinsic to non-first or second-generation American workers, and not necessarily to do with the employment culture of certain professions.

Essentially, my hypothesis is that there is a significant part of the labor force for whom the expectations of wages and investment returns (i.e. homeownership) are sticky. Not wanting to give up a home and looking for jobs they associate with some expectation of advancement, these people overcontribute to structural unemployment because they cannot culturally accept a situation where they must take a living situation - hard physical labor, renting a home, moving around a lot, living frugally in an expensive city, or what have you - that they once looked down upon.

This is not to say that I believe your theory of racial barriers is wrong; in fact, I think that's very significant. But some credit has to be given to the argument that "Americans don't want that kind of work." Have you heard about the shenanigans it took to get even a few white, unemployed Alabama men to do a day of harvesting work this past year? There was no culture to break into because all of the seasonal workers had already left.

forsize in reply to Ah Beng

is that even bad? a premium on crappy backbreaking labor not only incentivizes innovation, and automization but gives the people who are willing to do it extra money providing what everyone on the left screams that we need, more well paid lower classes.

I don't see the huge problem that needs millions of impoverished mexicans to fix.

Ah Beng in reply to forsize

Certainly we don't need to have lots of cheap labor, and non-tradeable jobs can be done with the addition of more capital, but that doesn't mean that it will be done, nor will it raise the wages of people in the lower classes. The people at the bottom of the income distribution - actually, more like the people in the bottom 3/4 of the income distribution - are not really having their wages held down by Mexican immigrants. Instead, the ones holding down real wages are the Chinese, the Indians, and soon it will be Africans.

I mean, typingmonkey and I both agreed that certain professions are dominated by Mexican immigrants, legal or otherwise. I can observe further that these are mostly nontradable services. Tradeables, on the other hand, are usually the focal point for improving the lot of people on the bottom of the income distribution. And while tradeables can be made in the US with sufficient capital, it does not mean that they can be made profitably, not when wages are sticky so that real adjustments take time. Discounting clustering effects, why do you think people outsource instead of building capital-intensive projects in the US? It's the overall return on the capital and labor both that matter.

In the nontradeables sector, on the other hand, you're correct that capital substitution is a viable option. But finally, to answer your question, what's the huge problem that needs millions of impoverished Mexicans to fix?

Millions of impoverished Mexicans. It's not like they aren't people too.

forsize in reply to Ah Beng

so are africans, and indians and bangladeshis. all people are people, are you saying existing as a person gives you a right to live in america? because certainly some people believe that. W.W. has long advocated open borders. I'm not as keen on the idea.

but this gets to the heart of the issue, if you believe in open borders all this other flim flammery is a ruse. you're not concerned greatly with tradeables, non-tradeables, long term unemployment, you simply believe that because they want to come here they should all be let in. so why have all this meandering argument? why the elaborate ruse?

also your "observation" that tradeables seem to not have mexicans in them, unless farming has become untradeable in the last 3 minutes I think you need more observational skills.

jvictor1789 in reply to forsize

I assure you there are plenty of Mexicans working in businesses producing "tradeables".

Mexico is America´s second largest buyer of US exports,after Canada, and third largest seller of US imports, after Canada and China.

Ah Beng in reply to forsize

Are the laborers providing a tradeable service? No. Since when is seasonal harvesting a tradeable service? The farmers are producing a tradeable good, but the harvesters are not.
What I meant is that if we do not address the fundamental economic forces driving this immigration - namely, that Mexico is poor and has fewer opportunities than America - then there will continue to be very little capital substitution regardless. The problem is not that America has too little capital investment, the problem is that there is this group of desperately poor people very nearby.
I'm not advocating open borders, but I'm also of the opinion that the more people we lift out of poverty the better. I'm not an advocate for open immigration but I'm certainly an advocate for far more inclusive immigration.
Just being a person doesn't give you the right to live in the United States; I'm a strong advocate of going through the process, not least because it includes citizenship classes. But the way the immigration system in the US works is a stupid crapshoot based on early 20th century isolationism.

forsize in reply to Ah Beng

what are you in favor of ah beng? invade mexico so we can have some control over them? send them billions of dollars in the hopes they don't do incredibly dumb things with it?

sounds like you're really in favor of essentially open borders, because after all, they're poor.

Ah Beng in reply to forsize

What I would like to see with regards to bilateral immigration policy with Mexico is another general amnesty with riders attached, namely that citizenship and assimilation classes are provided as a condition, just like with other naturalized Americans. I'd also like to see an employer sponsored green card scheme with low barriers to entry provided for Mexicans, with a path to citizenship possible - bring those who employ illegals into the system, and have them recruit in Mexico rather than encourage recruitment only in the States.

I view Mexico (and Canada) differently from the rest of the world in terms of immigration policy in terms of shared geographic links and because we have NAFTA. These terms would apply to Canada as well, but should be restricted to citizens of either country, possibly only to non-naturalized citizens to prevent the system from being abused.

In terms of immigration policy with respect to non-NAFTA parties, I'd say greatly increase the green card quota to allow foreign students to stay in the US following graduation with a path to citizenship, and also greatly increase the quota for H1-B visas. I'd also be happy to, at the very least, grant residency and possibly work permission to people from other countries that bring a minimum amount of money and will consume goods and services. The current green card lottery system can be retained on the much smaller pool of people that will not qualify for any of the above, and probably reduced in size.

My general rule is that if you want to become an American, are willing to work to be an American and help the American economy by spending money, then you should be given a chance to prove it. With Mexicans, the latter part is difficult but we have to acknowledge that Mexico has a special relationship with the US, so I'm willing to give them a pass, and in 20 years or so I expect the economic forces driving Mexicans to the US will largely be gone.

WhiskyTangoFoxtrot

Perhaps Gingrich is the only one proposing it because he's the only one who can without raising an uproar over "amnesty"? Conservatives are already suspicious of Romney and they despise Obama, so the last thing either of them needs is a mass revolt over immigration.

jouris

Paradoxically, the quickest way to get changes made to our insane visa/immigration system may be to start ruthlessly enforcing it.

There are (anecdotal) reports of agricultural sector disasters in Alabama as a result of their recent legal efforts on illegal immirgation. Duplicate that across the country, and add in the impact on other economic sectors, and the demand for reform would become irresistable.

RestrainedRadical

I think the most politically feasible approach would be to make it look like you're fixing an old broken visa system rather than creating a new path to citizenship. This gives even opponents of guest-worker programs plenty of wiggle room. Illegal immigrants can get on the back of the line with new looser eligibility requirements.

forsize in reply to Doug Pascover

do we need more affordable labor doug? I thought the problem was america's poor weren't making any money and the rich were taking it all.

the left is schizophrenic about immigration and the welfare state. they cry that companies need massive influxes of low skilled labor, then demand that that low skilled labor cost their employer union wages.

course it probably all doesn't matter. as long as the new welfare recipients vote democrat.

Melissia in reply to forsize

The right is schizo about everything as well, keep in mind. Including immigration-- they love it when farms pick up cheap labor (good ol' fashioned capitalism!), but hate it when farms pick up cheap labor (the "de took ar jurbs!" skit from south park comes to mind).

This is because "the left" is not a homogeneous group, nor is "the right". Hell half the time people can't even define left vs right without self-referencing the terms...

ctsmith1066

EU-style integration of labour markets is exactly what we should be pursuing, but naturally just about everyone would oppose that. Too bad.

jomiku

Don't try to be reasonable. I had actual discussions about unemployment in which the main argument was those people take the place of migrant farm workers picking apples in Washington State. That argument has two main threads: a) you're on your own or should be and b) the best immigration policy is a wall guarded with live ammunition.

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