World economic forecasts

a new book

http://www.amazon.com/Strategies-Improve-Accuracy-Macroeconomic-Forecast...

Dear All,

The crisis today countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland, Portugal, Japan and some how USA are facing has been caused due to four reasons:
1. They have Budget Deficit. Their income is not enough for their expenses
2. They have too big National Debt
3. They have been borrowing money for years and hence increasing their national debt irrespective of what happens in future for them.
4. They have been deceiving their people and the world by publishing false reports about their economic statuses.

Now they have reached a point where no body lends them money easily any more. They can not lie to people/world about their economic situation any longer either.

Thanks
Emad

These consensus GDP forecasts for the US sure look familiar......a whole lot like 2008 forecasts......Chart comparing here http://www.wallstreetrant.com/2011/12/gdp-estimates-2012-vs-2008-and-mor...

I Think china has most motive power to make a great progess in 2012.

forecast for Germany and France is worrisome and will further add to the woes of European Nations.

"High unemployment leading to No savings, Low consumption/demand leading to low production, No foreign Direct Investment, Increasing Foreign and local debt repayment and Higher Public Spending."

Ohh I must have used one word: "EUROPE"

forecast for Germany and France is worrisome and will further add to the woes of European Nations.

"High unemployment leading to No savings, Low consumption/demand leading to low production, No foreign Direct Investment, Increasing Foreign and local debt repayment and Higher Public Spending."

Ohh I must have used one word: "EUROPE" a bleak picture

correction
india gdp as for calendar year 2009 and calendar year 2010 are 1230B and 1720B. (imf)

@cloudwarrior
again, my friend, your analysis is incomplete. the figures you have painfully laid out are real gdp dollar figures.
what we need to look at are nominal gdp dollar figures: real gdp + inflation +-currency appreciation/depreciation against us$.
if we were to do math based on that then india gdp nominal growth is around 15%-18% depending on where the rupee goes. then at $1.7trillion (IMF number), nominal gdp added for india would be around $255B to 306B, compared to australia's nominal gdp growth of around 7%, say $80B...so 4x.
if you were to look at gdp number for india as of dec 2010 and dec 2011, you would see that it added around $500B, mainly due to appreciation of rupee from 52 to 44 (almost 15%, not possible evry year)..in that instance we did add 50% of australian gdp.
now in normal scenario of long term appreciation rate of 3% for the rupee (several bank forecasts) we will be adding around 25% of australian gdp this year.

as for china, my friend their gdp last year as per imf was 5.84Trillion and it is expected at 6.99trillion (imf estimate) by end of 2011. that is almost adding an australian gdp in one year..not 3 years as you say.

one more data point for you to chew on:
india gdp has grown at a avg annual nominal rate of 15% since 2000.

as for china their avg annual nominal growth since 2000 has been at 19%.
these data points are when you look at gdp at current prices in $.

if our projections are as planned, then we should be adding 50% of australian gdp in 2 years when the annual increase in indian gdp will be in excess of $600B.

chew on that mate.

Oh VSMumbai

I'm not sure what point you are attempting to make in your trolling here! But my thanks for giving me a chance to expound on my point.

As you say, "4% growth in a developed economy like Australia is indeed good". I know, we're pretty stoked down here too.

As I said, it is the highest rate in the OECD along with Chile. After the US and Japan, it should be the 3rd highest nominal contribution to growth in the OECD.

Our nominal GDP is US$1,237,363 billion according to the World Bank (2010), India’s is US$1,631,970 billion – not really that much of a difference is it – thank you for bringing up absolute dollars as a measure.

So, our measly 4%, which according to you doesn’t contribute much to world GDP growth, comes in at about US$49.5 billion. India’s 7.5% comes in at US$114 billion.

Let’s extrapolate these figures into some perspective for 2012 (2010 World Bank figures with OECD November 2011 projections - US$billions):
China – $499,651
US – $290,531
Japan – $109,175
India – $114,397
Brazil – $66,890
Russia – $60,672
Australia – $49,494
Indonesia – $42,405

So your contentions:
* Australia doesn’t warrant special analysis because its contribution to global GDP growth is small
* Australia is a “footnote at best” in world growth
False – it is highly likely it will be the 7th largest contributor in nominal terms during 2012

* India adds 50% of Australia’s GDP per year
False – actually it won’t even ratchet up 10% in 2012

* China adds Australia’s GDP every year
False – it takes nearly 3 years

So it takes 23 million Aussies to grow an economy US$49.5 billion.
And it takes 1,210 million Indians to grow an economy US$114 billion.

India’s economy growth compared to Australia = 2.3 times larger
India’s population compared to Australia = 52 times larger

No need to bring up GDP per capita as you have so clearly made my point for me.

As for being "virulent extempore" – you would have to now say that it was you that spoke with little forethought, not me.

This "analysis" indicates great disparities in the levels of growth of the listed countries. However, I cannot comprehend how it is possible in today's global and interconnected world that one country's GDP increases or decreases only slightly while another country's plummets. It is simply impossible. We are all connected and what happens in one economy will completely influence another. It is better not to think anymore in terms of one economy or another as it is becoming blatantly obvious that there is just ONE world economy. There is no getting away from our connection and interdependence.

I'd be interested to see to see Russia included in the chart after seeing the remarkable growth in the other BRIC nations.

http://www.oecd.org/document/51/0,3746,en_2649_34573_45274739_1_1_1_1,00...

This is an excellent graphical representation of GDP growth. China is hustling to be back to its normal super power state, Japan is going to recover from a bad period, and Europe may suffer a little, but wont tank. I see plenty of proof that India and Brazil will continue to grow as they have recently, but one up-and-coming country is missing. Where is South Korea? Or even Russia? I would be very curious to see a more extensive graph covering even more countries, and possibly another sources projections

Would you look at that! Team West doesn't seem to be doing so well now does it? Granted, it still has some of the biggest economies in the world and will continue to stay like that. Having said that, the power distribution of the world is definitely not representative of this economic graph. The way our world divides up power is defunct, namely the UN, and our leaders need to figure out a way to make it more accurate. My prediction, either the UN goes or the current Security Council will have to change.

wow, Japan? really? I think it's a bit strange that Japan is shooting up while India just sits tight.Of course, this is not growth, but rather grown percentage. maybe all of the 0 interest in Japan is finally kicking the civilians enough to spend some cash? Also, I wonder how much of Germany's decline is simply because of the rest of Europe, I'm guessing a lottttt

This is a VERY interesting in the fact that it shows GDP forecasts in an easy to read manner. I thought that China would have a higher GDP forecast in 2012 than in 2011 but it doesn't. Also Japan was very interesting, because of their stagnating economy and very low interest rate it is NO DOUBT that their GDP is negative! This is a very interesting daily chart, it gives a lot of information in a easy to read chart.

@cloudwarrior
As of Nov 2010 thru jan 2011, the various forecasts from oecd, imf, wb and australian reserve bank called for a 2011 growth of between 3.5% - 4.25%.
at the end, current projections for 2011 are at 1.5%. a full 60% lower than forecast. now for next year, 2012, the forecast is from 3.2% to 4.0% (as per you), my guess since it is projected that both China and India are expected to slow down by 2% each, australia will record a maximum of 2% ( rosy picture).

even though australia is "west" it depends on "east" to bail her out. dont forget that in your virulent extempore
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/goldman-lowers-forecast...

4% growth in a developed economy like australia is indeed good, no arguement there. it is just that when we are talking about the world, australia is not at the top of the list these days, just for the sheer fact that the growth it provides to global gdp growth (in absolute $) is not big enough to warrant special analysis. it is just a footnote at best.
yes india is lagging and poor, but the nominal gdp that india adds each year is around 50% of australian gdp..thats a lot and china adds an australian gdp each year.
as far as india lagging it is the second fastest growing major economy in the world, not bad eh?
now dont bring up gdp per capita today to start your defence.

Nice try VSMumbai

Didn't work though mate - there is just no way to make 4% GDP growth in a developed country during a global slowdown look bad.

Australia has the highest growth (along with Chile) in the OECD, almost equal or surpassing three of the 5 BRICS.

We aren't poor, so we don't need Indian levels of growth - the problem is, that India needs Chinese growth rates but just can't seem to attain them.

We're leading our pack.... you're the laggard in yours.

China - a near hard landing.
India - a bullish economy.
Brazil - Not so bad.
US - a bullish economy.
UK - sucks.
Japan?

@cloudwarrior
Australia is a decimal point when it comes to global predictions and talking about global gdp, they dont make the cut to analyze, decipher. too small to waste time.

sorry mate, 4% of $1T base does not add to much...what $40B...peanuts.