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The future of oil and gas
Nov 11th 2011, 15:54 by The Economist online
OVER the next 25 years oil demand will increase from 88m barrels a day to 99m, mainly to fill Asian petrol tanks, if planned energy policies around the world continues much as they are today. Over nine-tenths of the additional oil will come from the Middle East and North Africa, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest edition of the World Energy Outlook. The organisation reckons that the region will require $2.7 trillion of investment in exploration and production to provide the oil. Even in the Middle East, where oil is relatively easy to extract, it will be harder to get out of the ground. Average extractions costs there will increase from just over $12 a barrel in 2011 to more than $15 in 2035, as production increases by more than 17m b/d. Costs will go up far more elsewhere as high prices encourage oil producers to go after oil that is trickier to come by. The greatest leap will come in Latin America as pricey deepwater oil grows in importance.
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Readers' comments
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Oil is fast depleting by huge consumption all over the world. Underlying assumption of having discovered the energy that will replace oil is inevitable but its still in-existent as of today's reality. Further research investment is needed for us humans not to be doomed in the near future where oil will be extinct!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And where exactly will that oil come from?
Price increases can't create oil, just increase the portion that we can profitably extract.
Hello diseconomies of scale.
Among this chart's many problems I take the greatest issue with the bundling of Mexico, Canada, and America as OECD Americas. Mexico's inefficient state run oil firm surly skews these numbers and disguises the probable productivity gains (lower costs) in the US and Canada.
Many people have said that there will be some new engry replacing the oil and gas. So many years past, there aren't still new engry replacing the main position of gas and oil in the real world. There is no doubt that human beings will continue to use them heavily in the future. People can see the economy growth of Asia, no wonder the autor said that "mainly to fill Asian petrol tanks". For the future of oil and gas, indeed we still see the Middle East and North Africa.
Seriously??
I think you are confusing two importand words: "will" and "might". And the graph is really misleading. The article is about oil, and oil production will never increase by 50% in ME and NA. Luckily so, as this would just mean that we run out of oil that much faster. I encourage everyone to look at the statistics (for instance in BPs database) and do their own calculations on how much oil there is left. We might be heading for trouble...
@guest-woosweo,
I suspect that the horizontal axis gives production as "oil equivalent" which normally includes natural gas production converted to equivalent barrels of oil (5800 cubic feet of gas is about one barrel oil equivalent). The 88 mln barrel quoted in the text is oil only.
Could someone explain to me why the current production adds up to about 130 Mb/d which is more than the current demand of 88 Mb/d? Is "production" actually "production capability" or are some areas included in more than one data point? Or is 88 strictly oil and the chart includes other "equivalents"?
Otherwise, this would imply we have a glut of oil...
I find this information upsetting though I wonder if it includes a reduction in usage along with the population demand growth over this period of time.