Asia
Reforms in Myanmar
Happy days again?
Jan 13th 2012, 9:56 by R.C. | SINGAPORE
THERE was a brief lull following the excitement of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Myanmar at the beginning of December, maybe as everyone paused to take stock. This week the story of Myanmar’s gradual reform seemed to be back on track, with two more dramatic and hopeful developments; a significant release of political prisoners, on January 13th, and a ceasefire agreement between the Burmese government and one of the main ethnic armed groups, the Karen National Union (KNU), the day before.
This prisoner release, along with the one before, constitutes the most solid evidence that the regime is serious about changing its ways. The freeing of all the country’s political prisoners (there may be 2,000) has been one of the most consistent and forceful demands posed by Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the opposition, and Western governments over the years: Ms Clinton reiterated the same on her visit. Indeed, people had hoped for another round of prisoner releases around the time of her trip, though nothing happened then. Now, just when a trace of scepticism was creeping in about the whole reform process, the government has released 651 prisoners in one go under its amnesty programme.
At the time of writing it’s not clear exactly how many of the freed men and women can be classified as “political”, but it’s already evident that this batch includes many of the most prominent jailed dissidents, some of whom have spent decades in and out of the government’s jails. Several of them are leaders of the so-called 88 Generation movement, made up of those who took part in the student uprisings of 1988 and later. These include Nilar Thein, Min Ko Naing, Mya Aye and Htay Kywe. Several of these activists were first jailed for long sentences after the unrest of the late 1980s, only to be released and then jailed again after an aborted uprising led by Buddhist monks in 2007—the failed “saffron revolution”. Most intriguingly, the day's released prisoners include Khin Nyunt: no student revolutionary, General Khin served as the junta's intelligence chief and as the country's prime minister until his ouster in 2004. On being let out of house arrest, at the age of 71, he immediately expressed support for Ms Suu Kyi. (Incidentally, while in office the former general was credited with brokering an earlier series of ceasefires with the armed ethnic groups.)
Those among the opposition and in the West who support deeper engagement with Myanmar’s quasi-military government will see this as a further vindication of their approach. Sceptics on the other hand think that Aung San Suu Kyi has been moving too fast in her rapprochement with the new president, Thein Sein. But she already seems to be getting more out of the government than many might have expected by this stage. On her release today Nilar Thein immediately endorsed Ms Suu Kyi’s new strategy, giving another little fillip to the reform process.
For her part Ms Suu Kyi welcomed the releases. They came only the day after her National League for Democracy had announced exactly which of their number will be contesting vital by-elections set for April 1st. Ms Suu Kyi herself will be standing, for one. The elections should prove to be quite a test for the government’s reformist credentials.
Meanwhile, on January 12th the Burmese government signed a ceasefire agreement at Hpa-an, in Kayin state (formerly Karen state), with the KNU. The Karen have been locked in a civil war with the Burmese government ever since the country won its independence from the British in 1948; if this ceasefire does eventually lead to a durable peace this too will be regarded as an important moment. In the agreement both sides committed themselves not only to a ceasefire, but also to opening communication offices and to allowing passage for each others’ (unarmed) troops.
The series of conflicts between the central government in Yangon and the main ethnic groups, such as the Karen, the Shan and the Kachin, on the peripheries of the country, has been one of the most destabilising factors in Myanmar’s history. Everyone acknowledges that if Myanmar really is to recover and prosper again then these little wars will all have to be resolved; Ms Suu Kyi puts particular emphasis on this point in many of her speeches. So a ceasefire in the longest-running of those conflicts is certainly a step forward—particularly as this will be the first such written accord between the two sides. Nonetheless, as one KNU leader warned, “talks only go so far. What matters are practical steps taken on the ground.” Quite so, especially in Myanmar, with its sad history of false dawns and dashed hopes.
(Picture credit: AFP)
In this blog, our Asia correspondents and our Banyan columnist provide comment and analysis on Asia's political and cultural landscape. The blog takes its name from the Banyan tree, under which Buddha attained enlightenment and Gujarati merchants used to conduct business.
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THE PEOPLE OF INDIA WOULD WELCOME DEMOCRACY IN MYANMAR AS WE DESIRE FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH ALL NATIONS, UNLIKE OTHERS WHICH HAVE TERRITORIAL AMBITIONS..........
THE WORLD'S BIGGEST DEMOCRACY WELCOMES DEMOCRACY EVERYWHERE...
I am surprised too. The pace of reforms and changes have been real and significative, although much still need to be done.
I think an important step was the sidelining of that butcher Than Swe, he was the worst (and most powerful) man of the military junta.
France played a crucial part 'dans les coulisses' in bringing about the change in the military mindset of the government. But the sign of real and positive reforms is for the Burmese people to refer the country back to what was historically (and romantically) known as Burma and the city of Rangoon. Imitating and copying the actions of that Stalinist Mugabe, turning Rhodesia to Zimbabwe and Salisbury to Harare, was a major economic and political folly. Mountbatten of Burma and the colonial past, like the Raffles in Singapore, would be great tourist attractions and a boon to the economy. Cash in on history, not erase it!
Interesting your comment about the French role in this affair! Are there any relevant resources?
The Burmese are sending a pretty obvious message:
We don't want to end up like the Tibetians or the Uighurs
Having watched development in Myanmar for many years, there is no doubt that what has prompted the changes that we are now witnessing is the China factor. The western sanctions pushed the military government to relay on China as long as it took them to prepare for the changes that they have now set in motion. Be aware that this is not something that has happened over night. The transition now taking place has been prepared over several years. When they were ready, they started to distance themselves from China. I think we should say well done, particularly when one compare with the troubled Arab Spring. Myanmar will now take its much desired place as a friend of western countries and the country and its citizens should be bid welcome and invited in.
Moral of this story is that keep the US and the West Europeans out of Asian issues.
Best wishes
Kishore Nair from Mumbai
Kishore Nair
"Moral of this story is that keep the US and the West Europeans out of Asian issues."
Really? That's a little racist isn't it. And if it isn't, perhaps the moral of the story is that big countries like China and India that think they can bully others should keep out of smaller country's business and let them decide who they wish to deal with!
Poor Myanmar has to share a border with both those countries.
Again, you are mixing trade and armed hostility. Dont!
Kishore Nair
"Again, you are mixing trade and armed hostility. Dont!"
I have no idea what you are talking about.... again.... again what? But considering you have been expounding a theory of 'round tripping' for several years, it isn't surprising you make little sense.
Either way, Myanmar seems to be making its own decision on who they wish to deal with and more and more it seems to be the west and less and less India and China - all a matter of trust I guess.
Ha ha. Again, the American wishful thinking!! I doubt if Asians (or for anyone else) trusts the US.
As regards Round-Tripping, well, you will see more of that and more - I guess till the final collapse of the US - my guess by 2016
Best wishes
Kishore Niar from Mumbai
"final collapse of the US"? Wishful thinking on your part perhaps. Despite their many faults (and we all have faults) Americans are resilient, creative and resourceful. The downside is that they are intrinsically kind and charitable to a fault, helping people like you who are inclined to bite the hand that feeds them.
You are living in a different era. Twenty years back, US had a purpose - now it is getting irrelevant. Wake up boss, the world is moving fast.
Best wishes
Kishore Nair from Mumbai
Kishore Niar
I am not American.... that is what you get for making an assumption. And yes, I trust the US more than I trust India - America has plenty of faults but a massive inferiority complex is not one of them.
As for the US collapsing..... what AGAIN? Wow, the last time that idea was in vogue was the 80s when America was in the doldrums and Japan was going to overtake her and rule the world - that song is now being sung by India and China.
Considering the massive problems being faced by your own country, the 'pot calling the kettle black' springs to mind.
Round-tripping..... tripping is right!
It does not matter what nationality you have. What I see is that you are not in tune with the ground realities. I have never mentioned that China and India do not have problems and boy are they massive but the growth story can mitigate the problems. As for the US, the debt over hang and no growth can break the country and my take is by 2016.
Lots of people of different nationalities believe that it is still a land of milk and honey. They need to trip to wake up!
Best wishes
Kishore Nair from Mumbai
I have been sceptical of the "Burma spring" on the grounds that essentially the government has done nothing irrevocable. It has released people but it could put them back in an instant.
So far I have been proven wrong. I hope that this continues.
The change of heart of the governing military government is quite dramatic. Firstly Burma annoyed the Chinese government by stopping an electricity project, then finally come the exchange of ambassador with USA. It sounds like a peaceful transition to western style democracy in an express train. Does the Junta think they get out of the atrocities they did before easily.
Just want a small comment on the "failed saffron revolt" in Myanmar-did it FAIL if 5 years later there are reforms in the wind? small, insignificant,- maybe, but where there is Life, there is Hope.
There is hope. I would like to visit Burma when is is a democratic country.
"...the central government in Naypyidaw..."
FTFY
I think what played a huge part was several attempts by the Chinese to run roughshod over the Burmese leadership, because they were so isolated.
They realized that if they didn't change, the power they had would eventually become subject to Beijing's control, and they little more then puppets.
Faced with such a humiliating fate, they made the only other choice they could make.
One of the immediate pressing issues in Burma now is to get rid of the C's (lol) I mean of course, Corruption and Coercion (or if you prefer bribery and bullying), but I am quite confident that the scent of jasmine (or "sabei" in burmese ) that is now drifting through the country where I was born, will drive away the rotten evil demons and bring peace and freedom, if not prosperity, to the suffering 90% of this country.
Nothing unites a country better than the fear ("Angst") of being swallowed by a selfish arrogant neighbour greedy for natural resources and global dominance. It's better to be poor and free than have the country's pristine natural environment devastated and the delicate social/ethnic fabric ripped apart by foreign domination. Most Burmese understand that deep down in their hearts. No country wants to be just a gas/oil pipeline, a hydro-electric dam or a naval sea-port (for air-craft carriers and oil tankers) to serve some other ethnocentric nation's "Great Economic Leapfrog Forward" to the detriment of it's own people. Who wants to become a pawn (or is it a pearl in the "String of Pearls Strategy"?) and a vassal to some "Heavenly Kingdom". Freedom is not just another word for nothing left to lose, but it is also not worth losing for monetary gain of a few Charlatans (C again!) who have ruled Burma for too long.
Save the Irrawaddy Dolphins!
"Nothing unites a country better than the fear ("Angst") of being swallowed by a selfish arrogant neighbour greedy for natural resources and global dominance."
Are you talking about the Chinese, the Thai, or the U.S.?
Why exclude India from the list ?
BRAVO! Well stated. Succinct & spot on..
I have seen analyses of the change that Deng brought to China, many of which point to China's economic situation as a major motivator. It would be interesting to see something on what the motivations are (or, at this point, might be) behind this sudden and dramatic change in how Burma is run. Does Banyan, or anyone else, have some ideas about what might be driving this?
Wonderful. I continue to be amazed by the progress in Burma. I hope this will form a model for reform elsewhere. Nukes, religious fundamentalism and a long, frought history of bi-lateral antagonism are major hurdles to such peaceful change in other places like Iran or North Korea.